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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18613)	6/27/1999 3:37:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Excellent thoughts as usual. I have been fairly quiet myself as I believe the FOMC meeting is going to steer us no matter what so trying to second guess the Fed would be a wager rather than trading on TA etc. I have been trying to work out a few straddles as possibilities but think I may abandon those as I haven't found any that I like so far. Still I can't help but to look at previous chart patterns in this void of real movement. As I scanned back to different time frames that resembled our recent market activity, I found a recurring pattern. Always we would seem to rally from here then it was less often but still often enough to note that we would fall off the cliff a month later. The best example and over lay I see right now is 1997. I figure we are currently at the equivelent of Sept 11th. Not sure what the Fed will say Wednesday to spur the next attack to the 11K range but then they might raise again in August or else someone big could miss earnings to finish us off. Maybe the street will just realize that we can't have these valuations with higher interest rates. I don't know so I am just going ot hang out in the shadows until the smoke clears and the short term direction decides where it is going. Good Luck, Lee

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18613)	6/27/1999 11:07:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 99985

Excellent summary Heinz. You can add another one to your bear list- Barnes Market Risk index has gone vertical- decisionpoint.com 'Course no one cares about Risk any more do they? <g>

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (18613)	6/28/1999 12:25:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, lets revisit this wave count, as Janus 20 is the premier growth stock fund, and the internets are the premier growth stocks, which continue to show weakness. bway.net I think this count is more validated by the speculative activity in the fifth wave of each of the three impulse waves. e-commerce mania of Thanksgiving, yahoo/amazon blow-offs of Jan 99 AOL blow-off and volume peak in April 99 Of course is this count is valid (which it did call the top of growth stocks in April when I first posted it) we don't know if this is the final count in a longer sequence ala Prechter or Katz or this is the first leg up of a new bull market that will bring us too much higher highs ala Wolonchuk and mini-chuk Bear King -g- Looking at the Morgan stanley cyclicals, i can make a case that we are in a fifth wave right now, which might end up being a failed fifth, if the oils break down here and gold does head toward $200, this world economic rebound may be another bear rally, like last Spring. bb