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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Lee CA who wrote (230)	6/27/1999 9:57:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

John, whether we like it or not, this is by now an ageing bull market and there is the old adage: 'don't fight the Fed'. however, this market has surprised us over and over again and is already way past the point where rational considerations matter. to put it in other words, this is a market that depends more on emotions than,say, an undervalued market would. as i have stated in a post on the MDA thread not too long ago, i judge the health of the mania by the health (or lack thereof) of it's most manic sector, the dot.com stocks. as it were, this is a group that is as far removed from rational analysis as a sector could possibly be. witness the funny 'valuation models' employed by analysts (always good for a laugh). to say that the internet 'changes everything' is essentially meaningless - it doesn't tell us if the nutz will ever make money(i am quoting from my aforementioned post by heart, unfortunately i can't find it anymore).therefore, they trade on emotion alone, and can be used as an emotional barometer for the market as a whole. in spite of their recent recovery, they have not yet rescinded their bear market status. until they do so, i am assuming that fear prevails over greed. this is of course just a little theory of mine, but if you look closely you will note that this sector led the market to the upside when it was coming out of the jan.-march consolidation, and to the downside after the april-may top. so i am watching them closely. btw, i agree with you that the side-lines are a good place to be ahead of the FOMC. regards, hb