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To: dmf who wrote (84587)6/28/1999 10:39:00 AM
From: Tony Viola  Respond to of 186894
 
dmf,

Re Red Hat, sure, I've been following the company since they filed for IPO. However, unless you get some IPO shares before they open, you'll need a lot of money, because they might do what Juniper did last Friday. Juniper was planned to go out at about $27, it was changed to $34 mid week last week, and opened at about $100. Chart:

quicken.excite.com

Right now, the better known hardware and software companies are doing better than the .COMS at IPO. Red Hat will also, IMO.

Good Luck,

Tony



To: dmf who wrote (84587)6/29/1999 3:20:00 AM
From: Amy J  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
RE: "you and Paul are positive about Red Hat's upcoming stock offering. My 21 year old son just mentioned he is hoping to invest in Red Hat as well, so I appreciate hearing what you all think."

Hi DMF,

That's great your son is investing already. The earlier the better:

The retirement growth multiplier for a 21-year old is about $7.25 in today's dollar assuming loosely (1+growth-inflation)**NoYrsSaving = (1+11.35-4.35)**(55-21) = $7.25, i.e. Every dollar he invests today, becomes about seven dollars at age 55, after loosely correcting for inflation (i.e. expressed in today's dollar.)

At age 21 it's $7.25. Age 25 it's $5.74. Age 30 $4.20. Age 35 $3.21. Age 40 $2.40. Age 45 $1.79.

Translated, every dollar your son saves at age 21 for retirement, is equivalent to a 45-year old saving $4.00. Amazing, the power of starting early. In fact, consider this: $15,000 placed into the stock market on the day a child is born would become $1M at age 65, assuming 11.35 % growth & 4.35% inflation.

Regarding an investment in Red Hat, off the top of my head, the items an investor might review:

+ what is the offering price? has it moved? will it be bloated on day 1?
+ top customers, driving applications
+ # of ISVs/applications
+ financials: growth rate, margins, cogs, liabilities, etc.
+ distribution channel
+ management team; stock distribution to employees
+ barrier to entry (free Linux); competitive landscape (other Linux-wannabees, NT)
+ Linux did well against NT 4.0 because it was a) free, b) NT 40 had some issues
+ product comparison with NT's current beta?
+ what % of Linux users are pulled to Linux because it's free

Best of luck to your son! I hope it is profitable for him and educational too.

Regards,
Amy J