Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Wells who wrote (65438)	6/29/1999 5:16:00 PM
From: Olu Emuleomo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164687

>>although I'm tempted to short CMGI<< Be careful. CMGI just formed an almost perfect Head&Shoulders bottom! askresearch.com --Olu E.

To: Eric Wells who wrote (65438)	6/29/1999 5:24:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Respond to of 164687

My bet: <Uncertainty: .25% hike, keep tightening bias> However, I don't consider this uncertainty. The Fed has been very good at giving guidance re: rates, so as not to spook the markets. Whatever their plans or bias, they will continue to communicate them. Thus, I bet: Nonevent: .25% hike tomorrow, .25% hike in August

To: Eric Wells who wrote (65438)	6/29/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: Sam Sara	Respond to of 164687

<Anyone have any predictions on tomorrow? > Well, since no one seems to know, I'll take my shot. Data is, at worst, indicating lukewarm inflation, and some read data as showing no recent uptrend in inflation rate. There was one outlier CPI number, that can be regarded as statistical noise, showing higher inflation rate, not borne out by subsequent number. Market has shown recent spike upward, but let's face it, this is being driven by momentum players that will bail come fall, and move into treasuries and cash, as Y2K willies hit. Thus Greenspan has no need for any more than one, perhaps two hikes- Y2K willies will act as a brake on stocks. Correct me if i am wrong, but AG seldom (ever?) moves by .5 steps- even in throes of crisis last Sept-Oct. there were 3 rapid .25 easings, not .5 moves. If you ease by .25 steps then, with the wolf at the door, how can he justify a .5 hike in a single step now? He must hike by .25, if he does not all credibility is lost, and he will. This "bias" thing is harder to predict. I'm not sure what effect (if any) resignation of Rivlin has on this ultimate decision, given that she was usually not in favor of hikes, but it probably favors tightening. One must ask- what is point of doing so? To stop (nonexistent) rise in inflation? To put a brake on overspeculation in markets? Markets are fairly valued right now, according to Abby Cohen, who has had a stellar record over the last few years. OK, let's say markets go for a speculative jaunt if there is no tightening, SO WHAT? Earnings season is upon us, and poor earnings (if they are poor, and they probably will not be) will put an end to that. If earnings are good, there is a nice pop, and then Y2K willies (and maybe another .25 hike) put an end to that. So, at worst, I see a .25% hike and a tightening bias. There is a whole lot of money on the sidelines, waiting to see what happens. Come tomorrow afternoon, there will be a large amount of money rolling in. Drop in bond yield tells you which the wind is blowing there- stocks will follow with a push up tomorrow. My money is on the table now. Time will tell if the bet was a good one.