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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (65954)7/1/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: Eric Wells  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
I actually like Ebay as a company - I've bought a number of things on their site and have gotten some really great deals (despite the threat of shill bidders - which I have seen evidence of). Ebay is a dream for people who trade in certain items - like antique books - if you know the market, you know the prices, and you also know the dealers who do business there regularly - and you can determine when something is a good deal or a scam. Not that I haven't seen scams, I haven't bid on them though. But there are certain economic benefits that Ebay provides - for example, an antique bookstore in Omaha is going to ask for much lower prices than one in San Francisco (where I live) - and if I can find a particular book I am looking for from a dealer in Omaha, I can usually bid a price (and win) that is lower than I would pay for the book here. Such prices may even out eventually (when Omaha book dealers figure this out) - but right now, there is a sort of arbitrage to be taken advantage of on occasion (at least in the area of antique books). I've purchased probably about 100 items from Ebay and have yet to have bought something that I thought I was taken to the cleaners on. Of course, I have not bought any "new" items on Ebay - items being dumped by retail outlets.

My main concern about Ebay as a stock is they have a huge PE, they continue to demonstrate that they don't have a handle on technical issues, and it's unknown whether their market can really grow beyond the niche of collectible items. I keep hearing rumors of a slowing in the growth of auction counts - and who knows how the outage on June 10 will impact their revenues for the quarter. That being said, they do have the audience - and I must say that if I were to sell an antique, I would go directly to Ebay. The listings on Ebay greatly outnumber those of the auction sites of Amazon and Yahoo - and Ebay has much higher traffic of bidders of well.

But in terms of risk, I put EBAY and AMZN in the same basket - both companies have huge market caps in unproven markets. Ebay at least is profitable. I'm reluctant to go long on either stock at the moment. As I've stated in previous posts, the only internet stock I like at the moment is AOL (and MSFT - although it's not only an internet stock). I just hope I don't lose my shirt on AOL tomorrow morning (please give us low employment numbers!).

-Eric



To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (65954)7/1/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: Cap_Loss_Cfwd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
>>Where is Eric Wells ? <<

For a while he was over harassing the faithful bulls on the Ebay board. He was impolitely told that they prefer to keep their heads buried in the sand, thank you very much, and please go away.