Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (63804)	7/1/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Wayne, I think the New Deal was just bringing America into the twentieth century. I expect this meltdown to be more like the 1930s Depression, and I suspect there will be radical prescriptions, but most of our ways of muddling along will stay in place.

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (63804)	7/2/1999 6:11:00 AM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Wayne: Although you didnt ask for it, I will offer my commentary. I see this as very parallel to 73/74. Yes I see overcapacity, and I see little pricing pressure. But I also see that interest rates are going up (with or without AG support) and perhaps most importantly, I see a FED that is timid of fighting inflation for fear of what may happen to the stock market and the rest of the world. IMO if you give them credit for realizing that this is a bubble, then they must prefer a slow grinding end (ala 73-74) to a crash followed by stagnation. (29-33) I see oil prices up. I see energy costs up. I see financial prices up. (interest rates) Energy impacts just about everything from chemicals to agriculture. So it is a matter of time before it threads thru and the CPI (massaged or not) gets smacked. The bad news is once the CPI gets hit, the train runs away since wage inflation, benefits etc etc are all keyed into it. The adjustment process is slow (as are most investors) so by the time they realize it is not a dip, I suspect they will have erased a large portion of their gains. Now a quesiton for you and Mike. Where does the bond market get the majority of funds from ? Bond funds, insurance companies etc. And do you have a link or breakdown (or heck even your suspected breakdown would be helpful as I have no clue you could even say I am clueless<g>) thanks