To: GVTucker who wrote (84801 ) 7/2/1999 1:07:00 PM From: Tenchusatsu Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
<First, why is it such a 'bizarre contradiction' to like AMD even though Athlon (or whatever K7 is called these days) is make or break for AMD?> Because ole Danny Boy is rating AMD "long-term accumulate." Note the words long-term . Niles says that Athlon is make or break. He doesn't even think that Athlon is a sure win for AMD. Yet he rates the stock "long-term accumulate." <It can be argued that the downside is limited on the stock, and the upside is huge. That isn't 'bizarre.' It's a concept called risk-reward.> The downside is indeed huge. If Athlon is more break than make, creditors will be demanding Sanders' head on a platter. Then the bottom drops out very quickly. <And when it comes to Niles' opinion on Intel, it strikes me that he has done a good job in the short term earnings area, so good that a lot of people are wondering if he doesn't have an inside source at Intel. Let's see--the stock is about the same place it was when he yelled 'sell' on CNBC and the market set an all-time high yesterday--I'd say his call was pretty good.> Nice try. Did he say "sell" for the purpose of buying back later at a lower price? Or did he just say "sell" in a generic sense? I'll bet tons of people took his advice, sold INTC, and felt good about it as the stock price dropped down to the fifties. But Niles never said, "OK, now's a good time to buy," even though INTC is back on the rise. And if Niles is anything like your buddy Tom Kurlak, he won't tell anyone to buy even if INTC continues to rise and rise. Meanwhile, those who wisely ignored Niles' recommendation to sell are doing pretty well right now, thank you. <And if you're looking at the long term, his rating is the same as AMD--long term attractive.> Let's see. Intel has a long-term business plan that includes additional manufacturing capacity, plans for the new 300mm wafers and 0.13 micron technology, public roadmaps that extend out to 2002, and a willingness to reposition the business around the Internet. AMD's long-term business plan is ... er ... continue to pound Intel's fist with their face? <I find it rather comical that the generic response I get has been a comparison of the returns of AMD to Intel over the past 2 years. I'd just as soon not own either.> And I find it rather comical that you're trying to defend an analyst whose advice was to sell Intel. Not sell, then buy back. Not sell, then buy another stock, as you seem to suggest. Just sell. Who cares how the general public takes his advice, right? If INTC takes off from here, Niles can weasel his way out and say, "Well, when I said sell, I meant the short-term." Can't you see the political motivation behind Niles' words? Is that even worth defending? Tenchusatsu