To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4448 ) 7/6/1999 9:10:00 AM From: Richard Singer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5504
Zeev- How might Columbian recession woes come into play? From WSJ article: ************************************************** For decades, Latin America's steadiest economic growth rates helped stabilize Colombia. Now it is in deep recession, adding new strains to the ills of violent crime, guerrilla warfare and drug trafficking. "It's a country with a very delicate equilibrium," said economist Javier Fernandez Riva. Colombia "is complicated enough without throwing economic problems on top of it all." Widespread layoffs and a sharp rise in interest rates have devastated families. Homeowners formed long lines at savings and loans on May 31, the deadline to take advantage of a government mortgage-relief program. Patricia Rojas, an unemployed hospital worker, said she hadn't made a mortgage payment in five months. Fearful of losing her home, she took the government's offer of a three-year loan to get current on the mortgage. "I hope this doesn't just postpone my sadness," said Ms. Rojas, a 35-year-old married mother of three. Her monthly payments rose by a third last year after the country's prime rate soared to nearly 40%, before coming down to 18% at the end of May. President Andres Pastrana blames Colombia's economic woes on his predecessor, Ernesto Samper, who spent wildly to shore up political support amid corruption scandals. Budget cuts and a tight monetary policy were necessary to clean up Mr. Samper's mess, says Mr. Pastrana, who also faults the worldwide investor jitters that began in Asia two years ago and spread to Latin America last year. Critics say Mr. Pastrana's economic team caused a gigantic interest-rate hike that paralyzed the economy and drove debts up. "Enacting fiscal discipline in the middle of a recession is ridiculous," said Mr. Riva. "It was like what Herbert Hoover did to set off the Great Depression." Whoever is at fault, average Colombians feel the pain. Unemployment hit 19.5% in March, and the country has since seen a string of strikes by oil workers, teachers, truck drivers and hospital workers. Overall economic output in the first three months fell by 4.8% from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive quarter showing a decline. Industrial production was down 20.3% and construction, a major job provider, dropped 16%. The recession is reverberating through the banking system, which posted huge first quarter losses and needed government bailouts for several institutions. In early June, frantic depositors withdrew $18 million from one major bank when it was rumored to be insolvent. Responding to protests by irate debtors, federal lawmakers are demanding an overhaul in the mortgage-finance system set up in 1972, when Mr. Pastrana's father, Misael, was president. On June 11, the central bank announced it was limiting increases in mortgage payments to the inflation rate. That won't help Jose Luis Nieto, whose mortgage obligation already went up. When he isn't visiting bus companies searching for work, he's pulling together the paperwork to try and collect on his wife's $13,000 life insurance policy -- almost what he owes on the house. "It's like she's protecting us," he said sadly, flipping through the pages of an expense log for road trips that Maria Rosalba gave him with the handwritten dedication: "You're just the way I like you." "The only thing I'm missing is her warmth as a person," Mr. Nieto said.