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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (13607)	7/2/1999 8:27:00 PM
From: Patrick Grinsell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

And justice for all! It would appear that neither AGN3d nor Voodoo Extreme are carrying links to the latest smoke and mirrors article. Something tells me this isn't a coincidence. I almost burst out laughing when I saw that this guy was blaming the glut of 3d cards on the market on 3dfx instead of Diamond's poor channel management. That's like blaming Intel for an oversupply of PC's. You'd think 3dfx was holding a gun to their boardmakers head. Pat

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (13607)	7/2/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: Yeagher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

3dfx's branding will eventually be hurt if they fall significantly behind their competitors features. 3dfx has an excellent reputation among newbies and performance enthusiasts - but - it is all due to their old technology. Execution, execution, execution. It's all about execution, isn't it? 3dfx is nearly always very hush hush about their upcoming products, except to beat their chests about how the current product is "nothing" compared to what they are working on now. If they were more forthcoming about their roadmap, it might be a helluva lot easier to criticize them for being late with next gen product. Instead, guys like me pretty much end up fantasizing about what this product will have, all while the company itself barely manages a vague reference to what products of the future might contain. Or might not contain. Or could eventually have. Maybe, maybe not. When I read Pat's interview with Scott Sellers, I was in a skeptical state of mind. When I got to the part of the interview about the register rumor, I was keenly focused on the phrasing that Scott used. It's my opinion that he didn't deny the rumor. And let's be clear: the rumor isn't only that 3dfx was in talks to buy all or part of S3, but that they were also having problems with features and functionality in their next chip. When I read Scott's words it was like a chill went down my spine. I got a very bad feeling. I thought very carefully and eventually decided to sell all my shares, which I have done (at a slight loss, which was a blessing as I used the money to buy Metricom (MCOM) for 20 3/4). I am certain that 3dfx will see $30 a share, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's this year. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if it went higher than that even sooner. But there are too many unknowns right now. I definitely intend to come back, but not with the situation as it exists now (insider selling, my subjective opinion of Sellers' "denial" etc). Good luck guys, but since I'm out you'll probably see $20 a share next week ;-)

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (13607)	7/2/1999 8:43:00 PM
From: Joe C.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

I think another great strength will be this new gaming site. I'm not looking at this as an internet craze thing. I'm looking at this as an excellent opportunity to strengthen their branding. I have high hopes for their new site - due out this month. Every 3000 board has a "free" upgrade to Unreal Tournament. I will be extremely disappointed if 3dfx hasn't arranged an automatic hook into their servers for first time installation. This is great exposure for the company. Granted all the board buyers already have 3dfx, but if they love the game and show their freinds - where do you think they will want to play. If these friends don't have a 3dfx board, they may just start thinking they should get one. I see this as a HUGE opportunity for them if they do it right - an entertainment platform for the PC that provides a strong user friendly service for PC software developers. Epic has been strongly pro-TDFX recently - could this be what they have in mind. I've never played on the net so maybe I'm being somewhat naive. Am I being overly optimistic? Joe C.

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (13607)	7/6/1999 1:16:00 PM
From: Joseph Hoane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

I think this is a decent buying point on the chart. An entry at $15 lets you put a stop somewhere between $13.50 and $14.50. Given what Patrick just said and the time of the year, $15 seems like a good price. On the other hand, waiting for it to break $16.50 might be a good idea, but none-the-less, TDFX is starting to look cheap, assuming that the nextgen thingie is KickA. T-buffer. S-buffer. Yada Yada. I just want to (virtual) kill! ... And we were all jumping up and down on the group-W bench yelling, KILL! KILL! ... Alice's Restaurant So that's the question. Is V4 KickA? Anybody have any opinions? Joe

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (13607)	7/6/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: El Guapo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Patrick: "3dfx's only kink in their chainmail could be their execution (#3) regardless of branding. Branding can only take you so far, and 3dfx has yet to show that they can do something beyond the Voodoo architecture. Of course, I'm betting they can do it, but I acknowledge that this is the riskiest part of owning 3dfx." One other lesson to be learned from S3. 1) Even if you have learned from all of your mistakes and your competitors' mistakes, the graphics chip sector changes so rapidly that the top dog can be dog meat in less than a year. And such changes are so rapid and unpredictable, that each company within the industry is vulnerable simply because they must spend 18-24 months developing a particular product. In 1997, who could have known that yet another revolution was happening in the graphics chip sector, and that S3 would be left out? How could S3 have predicted that 3dfx would be so successful as to rock THEIR comfortable little world? Well, I did, because I knew that 3dfx (or 3Dfx as they were known at the time of their IPO) was going to FORCE other companies to react, by simply making tons of money. That sure got everyone's attention! I even looked into shorting shares of S3. However, I decided that it was better to simply invest in 3dfx. After all, S3 was a pretty savvy company. Maybe they could come up with a better 2D/3D chip or even had one in the works. And besides, 3dfx certainly did not have enough leverage in the industry to change the way OEMs did business. All of those things were true at the time. But also true at the time, but somehow not making a great impression upon me, was the fact that two or three dozen 3D chip manufacturers were all competing for the same pie. And even if 3dfx itself was not powerful enough to change the industry, the giant force of 50 companies which WERE the industry was changing the industry! And you know what? The MARKET knew it! It is reflected in the stock price of S3... AND 3dfx. Regardless of the business plans of S3 OR 3dfx, and how well they execute, and even how much money they make, the big story here is that there are many hungry, and even starving companies all struggling for the same pie. And it's not certain who will end up with the biggest piece. It's not even certain that the one who winds up with the biggest piece will keep it for very long. My prediction is that the price of 3dfx and all other companies will remain depressed until there is some clear indication that either a) 3dfx is the clear market leader or b) no more change is forthcoming in the industry for a long time I find scenario (b) to be very unlikely. Therefore, my only reason for investing in 3dfx is (a). El Guapo