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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Long John who wrote (48421)	7/2/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Adelle	Respond to of 120523

Happy 4th to all! wilstar.com

To: Long John who wrote (48421)	7/3/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 120523

Long John, I was wondering about developing a strategy for 'shorting' or puts on stocks right after earnings come out. Have you developed such a strategy. I've seen predictable patterns in stocks like NKE, PAYX, and MWD but I never moved on this before. Of course they would have to be very short term 'puts' or shorts because these stocks will invariably rise in the end. Then my second question would be how about stocks that I find that are looking for "lower estimates" much lower than last quarter.. Couldn't we utilize those for something. I know it would be only 10% of our trades but could provide the full spectrum for the earnings plays. I also find that when my technical indicators give me a 'sell' signal I do nothing but sell, but what about going short for example, I saw KLAC losing steam but did nothing but close the trade. With earnings plays I think it would work well because ultimately we know the stock is sound (i.e NKE, PAYX) and we can't get burnt whereas a stock like CUST the 'bottom' could be very, very low indeed.

To: Long John who wrote (48421)	7/3/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: Harold Boxenbaum	Respond to of 120523

Long John, Thanks for the info. I sent Quote.com an email asking about their services. As far as cups and handles are concerned, I love them, but only if the break-out will be to a new high. I sometimes buy during the handle (and exit quickly if stock falls). My favorite pattern is the pennant, especially the tip, near a new high. I usually buy near the tip, and exit if the price drops below the pennant. I don't like buying after the breakout from the pennant, since the breakout can be explosive, and I'd lose that big move. Probably the best lesson I've learned over the last few years comes from Jack Schwager. He believes the most powerful signal is a failed signal. A few weeks ago, PLCM (great fundamentals) was forming a descending triangle. I would not go near it. Then that signal failed, viz., the stock went to the upside, breaking the downward triangle. This was also a Motley Fool stock pick. I bought and then the stock exploded. Don't get me wrong. I make big mistakes, like buying SORC at the same time, and being stopped out. Also, my emotions sometimes get the better of me, and I hold losers too long. Regarding CANSLIM, I am a bit sceptical. It may be true that stocks with big rises have the CANSLIM properties. But what percentage of CANSLIM stocks succeed and fail? If only 5% succeed, that's not a good record. The Motley Fool recommendations are similar to canslim, but also require 10% of more inside ownership. For the time being, it seems that the big moves will be in computer related technology stocks. My present positions are CSCO, LU, CREE and PLCM. LU seems like a good long-term play, as its relatively insenstive to downside potential and its a steady riser. I also think technology stocks are over-extended and should correct in the next week or so. Best wishes. Harold.