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To: GST who wrote (66170)7/3/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: Sam Sara  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Damping of net stock oscillations

Fascinating post, GST. Net stocks so far seem to be following pattern of earnings runup (and presumably will "correct" soon after), but it seems that that the runup will not be as steep as before. This may mean that correction afterward will not be as steep, either.

I attributed this,in a simple minded fashion, I am sure, to increasing floats and increased institutional holding. Perhaps your concerns over the trend in the reduction in liquidity is also an important factor. If so, this "damping of oscillations" I am hypothesizing about may be an illusion- perhaps runup is not so steep because of this, and correction will be proportionally greater.

There are multiple forces at play, no doubt.

My thought turn to where the net money will "rotate into" after earnings season. Back into cyclicals again? Cyclicals do tend to run in spurts, and it may be time to look to the Dow again.

Comments?



To: GST who wrote (66170)7/3/1999 8:50:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
>> I promised you an explanation for the net-yield connection.

GST, You promised and delivered. One more question. I feel like I'm in econ 101. How does one track the kind of liquidity you are talking about ? If you make your $billion and quit posting here, how do we know whether speculative liquidity is increasing or not ? From long rates, bonds, M1, M2, M3, MZM, or what ?



To: GST who wrote (66170)7/4/1999 12:30:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Well said, GST.