Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stormweaver who wrote (25485)	7/5/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: Bill Fischofer	Respond to of 74651

SUNW's vulnerabilities are well known However, those who insist on viewing the computing world as a zero-sum game will continue to be frustrated whether they are in the anti-MSFT or the anti-SUNW camp. Thanks to the net, the market is growing fast enough to provide a profitable niche for SUNW even as they face erosion from Wintel below and pressure from IBM above. By the time the pincers closes, I expect SUNW to be bought out (ala NSCP) and hence the risk/reward for anything other than a tactical short on the inevitable dips is simply not there. My point about Solaris on Merced was not to make the case for a new SUNW revenue stream but rather to point out the groundwork for why INTC might acquire SUNW. INTC would very much like to lessen its dependence on MSFT even as it continues to reap the rewards of that partnership. SUNW knows in its heart that once IA-64 kicks into volume production there is no way SPARC will be able to compete with it because nobody can touch INTC when it comes to process technology and high-volume yield management, so it is hedging its bet. Expect the unexpected when it comes to the future. The battle for succession to the datacenter crown in the post-390 era will make for some strange bedfellows.

To: Stormweaver who wrote (25485)	7/5/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

James and Bill, I enjoyed reading your posts on Sunw. If the other industry heavyweightsI don't believe a merger is possible either. Why would another company dish out so much money for a company with a high PE if its future growth rate is expected to slow. These other industry heavyweights know a lot about future trends. Of course there could be gains in stocks due to expected synergies. However, to me it does not appear that we will see a major business combination involving Sun that could boost its growth rate. I see it as a Dell or Oracle in the very near future. Now i am planning to short this stock a couple of days before earnings release. I expect it to get hammered after that. That could also happen to MSFT of course for a short time period as well but it would recover. If the legal problems get worse, we could see a voluntary breakup or spin off of certain divisions that would benefit shareholders. That option is available to MSFT if it is in the best interest of the shareholders. That is the reason to stick with this company for a while. IMHO, longer term you can't lose with MSFT but you could with Oracle or Sun.