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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (6285)	7/5/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9818

"I've looked at the code, I know it will break. It's an observation, not a prediction." "Based on my personal programming experience, I'll predict that 90% of accounting systems will either reject the data or fail. To me, that's more than a reasonable estimate. Assume I'm off by 100% ... that only 45% of Accounting systems die. Watch what happens. Your accounting system is dead in the water. What are the implications? Well... The most simple consequence is you can't cut or pay an invoice. No money will come into or leave your organization... (assume payroll is working... otherwise things only get worse... faster) There are some organizations so literally computer dependant, they will NOT be able to get that cash flow moving EVEN if they hire 100 accounting clerks. What invoices do you pay? What do you bill? EVERYTHING is in the computer...The clock struck Jan 1, 2000 and the computer had a stroke. Other companies will be able to generate a trickle of billing and payments by hiring manual labour... (How many clerks could you hire tomorrow? by next week?) How FAST can you get an accounting system going? Can you fix the one you have? Or do you install a new one... Several of us on this list have installed new accounting systems under pressure... how long did it take? 9 months? 6 Months?? 3 Months??? How fast can you install a new system when the entire company is a) screaming at you? and b) Blaming you? and c) the old system is dead and dead computers leave no audit trails. If you can't get your accounting system up and running in three months you're dead. Out of business, kaput ... Today's organizations CANNOT survive three months without cash flow. (and yes there WILL be a run on the banks as companies get desperate for cash advances NOW!) Remember that 45% failure rate? The VERY optimistic one? It means that 45% of the people you bill will not be able to pay. This is 100% out of your control ... 45% of your cash flow will be stopped even if your system is fine. Even if you have NO Y2K problems ... 45% of your clients do. So do 45% of your vendors ... can you order your raw materials if THEIR systems are dead? Oh, and remember that you've been pushing Just InTime inventory for years now ... your stock levels are deliberately low ... based on the assumption that the NEXT delivery is next week. Can you build a car with 45% of the parts? Can you ship a product when 45% of the distribution channel is 'troubled' by the Y2K problem? Can you sell your product to me... If I have a Y2K problem? As Ted Nelson said in ComputerLib "Everything is InterTwingled" Can you survive with 45% of your cash flow? Will your computing staff stay around with salaries going through the roof? Especially for those who have PROVEN conclusively they can write Y2K compliant code!!! How many companies need to fail...10% ? 25% ? 45% ? before a critical mass is achieved and it all comes tumbling down like a house of cards? We are all inter-dependant upon each other... we might NOT pass 'data' back and forth... BUT we DO pass invoices and other accounting and inventory information back and forth... managed by systems totally dependent upon digit deficient data. ------ Peter de Jager ------ kenraggio.com