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To: Len who wrote (3499)7/6/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
Len,

One of my concerns is that all the data was so positive and so many analysts were promoting NEON. There has got to be a credibility issue here.

The data is still positive, in a way. Though the sequential revenue is negative, the year-to-year revenue is still very strong. The company's record is impressive. Perhaps more important, the industry the firm is competing in has huge growth opportunities. The only downside is that NEON is fundamentally a one-trick pony.

Despite the company's great success, it won't be news to anyone following this thread that sometimes the number of analyts promoting a company is the result of a company's past progress; the analysts' enamoring of the company can be more a symptom of the company's track record than a body of people etablishing credibility about the future.

It's very rare that analysts will say, "Hey, things have been going great, but management is hiring people as if the growth will continue as robust as ever when we think it might not." As an example, when the lone analyst announced a month or so ago that the deals would have to come in at the end of the quarter because they weren't coming in as in the past, he was confident those deals would, in fact, be made in time. That didn't happen.

And though I don't follow the company closely, I haven't heard of any analysts saying, "The company's cost of infrastructure might be progressing more rapidly than their sales." In the end, the only credibility is about the past accomplishments, not the future expectations.

That is why I won't put all my eggs in one basket, not even Qualcomm's.

--Mike Buckley




To: Len who wrote (3499)7/6/1999 10:25:00 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
On Neon, what I would do is get my ego out of it as much as possible.

A: Assume you don't own the stock

B: Assume you have never owned it.

If you were to start now, clean, would you take the money you now have in it, and buy it as a turnaround, or would you buy something else instead?