To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (22582 ) 7/7/1999 7:47:00 PM From: Typhoon Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 27307
I shorted 5 yhoo july 180 calls for 5 3/4 naked just because I think the internet bubble has burst and that somewhere in here the run up in these stocks will end and you will have a classic head and shoulders top. Although there were some cautious words about the earnings I think the internuts had a good rally and day traders were starting to feel like the good old days were here again. So my assessment is that the numbers were in line with expectations, obviously the street puts out conservative numbers to pump up their clients and more importantly to insure against 1 cent misses that can kill a stock. YHOO did not blow away numbers. In fact there seems to be evidence that numbers are boosted by geocities and not generic growth, which appears to be slowing, and may not support the 46 billion dollar market cap this stock has. Trust me, I think the internet is huge, I just think things are getting maniacle. I guess I got the idea from a client who wanted to buy calls in front of the earnings. However the premiums were so obscene he passed. This suggest tremendous optimism, which have been met by good but not blow out numbers. I figure the stock trades up a bit, as every cnbc viewer hears they beat estimates and I'll short more in the 175 area, then look for the stock to maybe lose upside momentum. Upside risk I see to 190, downside 160, selling 180 calls for 5 3/4 today and more tomorrow at 8 could be a great, but dangerous trade. More unspectacular earnings and particularly if stocks do not respond well to good numbers may get me to start buying out of the money puts on yhoo, amzn, egrp, amtd, nite, and aol. Everyone thinks the market goes higher-problem. Everyone thinks yields are topped out now that the fed has tightened-problem. People are buying lots of calls, and the vix (volatility index) is 20 and its a clear sale at 18. Too much complacency. Just my opinion. BUY EMC or NOK to make money on the internet. Huge rev, great growth, data storage and wireless internet access you can take to the bank. Just my humble opinion. Good luck too all. It just feels like a bubble and I been through these before.