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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RFH who wrote (7903)	7/8/1999 3:07:00 AM
From: Dr. Id	Respond to of 18928

270sh of JBL @46 (one of your favs) or perhaps 325sh of DELL @38 and lastly, 500sh of CPQ @25 Of these, I'd go with JBL or Dell. I am a long term CPQ shareholder, and the stock stays in a very narrow range for LONG periods of time (then it tends to move up quickly). JBL has wider short term swings, as does Dell. You might also check out VTSS or NTAP. Both have very promising futures, strong well managed companies, and the stocks provide lots of room to AIM! JB

To: RFH who wrote (7903)	7/8/1999 8:05:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

HI RFH, In regard to the Resistance settings, I've been using just the opposite recently on an experimental basis. It looks like if I use 0.0% Sell Resistance along with "vealies" and 20% Buy Resistance I come up with better results and conserve cash better. My goal is to be able to use less total Cash Reserve if I can conserve its use in a long down trend. The "vealies" conserve my shares in a long up trend, so I don't need the resistance there. The overall range of SAFE is still 20%. If I can change my overall long term cash/equity ratio by even a small amount favoring the equity side it benefits the long term results quite a bit. I've not finished this study yet, but initial results are favorable. In one example I was able to lower the peak cash reserve percentage from 50% to near 40% without running out of cash in a severe down turn. By staying more fully invested, the long term results improved. As I get closer to finishing this work, I'll post more on the subject. CPQ stumbled, so its price is more reasonable right now, However, I'm not sure how quickly they're going to recover. DELL is going great guns. But remember, JBL builds stuff for DELL, CPQ, LU and lots of others!! For JBL, it's not a matter of who wins, because they will get business from whomever the winner is! It's a little like either betting on the horse to win or the saddle maker that supplies all the jockies! Hope this helps. Best regards, Tom

To: RFH who wrote (7903)	7/8/1999 8:24:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Respond to of 18928

Robert, I would not invest in DELL or CPQ. The PC business has become a commodity business. DELL isn't going out of business, but the trading patterns of DELL with wild swings of euphoria followed by terror are probably over. I have two suggestions and one arb play. PSIX and SEBL, then SAVLY. Siebel Systems - SEBL is one of the best of the front office software companies in the world. Go back through the CPQ articles and they have agreements with CPQ to load their software on CPQ machines. <grin> Long term estimated growth rate is 45%. Current drop is because of a downgrade to SELL. Lone wolf or correct call. With a company like SEBL and a hefty cash position you shouldn't care, right? Siebel Systems, Inc. provides sales and marketing information software systems. The company designs, develops, markets, and supports the Siebel Enterprise Applications, a Web-based application software product family designed to meet the sales, marketing, and customer- service information system requirements of organizations of any size. Siebel's software applications enable companies to manage sales information throughout the entire sales cycle (Siebel Sales Enterprise); manage service requests (Siebel Service Enterprise); manage field service operations (Siebel Field Service); manage call center operations (Siebel Call Center); and monitor overall company performance (Siebel Marketing Enterprise). In 1998 Siebel acquired network software provider Scopus Technology, Inc. confirmatoryanalysis.com PSINetInc. - PSIX How about an internet play if you want to swing for the fences? PSIX is considered one of the most well regarded internet service providers for business. Unlike the consumer, businesses are now starting to "get it" and use the internet to leverage their positions and also business to business e-commerce is about to explode. International exposure here also. Long term estimated growth rate is 45%. confirmatoryanalysis.com PSINet Inc. is a leading provider of Internet access services and related products to businesses. The company provides dedicated and dial-up Internet connections to businesses in 90 of the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas and in 12 of the 20 largest global telecommunications markets in North America, Europe, and Asia. In addition to Internet connectivity services, PSINet offers businesses corporate intranets, Web hosting services, remote user access services, multi-currency electronic commerce services, security services, and voice-over-Internet services. PSINet serves some 54,700 business accounts, including 168 other Internet service providers, through over 500 dial-up sites in 12 countries. BTW, if you don't think B2B is getting hot, take a look at CNQR. I missed it yesterday morning, but at least one of my friends hopped on for the ride. What does this company do? Internet Time and Expense reporting. Boring, but this sort of nuts and bolts stuff is finally sinking in. Arb play. Buy SAVLY and eventually wind up with ADCT. Right now you can buy SAVLY for about $14.25. ADCT deal to buy SAVLY is for 1 share of SAVLY for every share of 0.358 shares of ADCT. At the $14.25 level, that translates into an exchange value of $39.80 for ADCT when ADCT sells for $46.125. Almost a 16% discount. Eric Dubin at Microsoft Investor has a buy on ADCT at $43 or less. He also headed the list with a 77% return from November 1998 to the end of June. investor.msn.com confirmatoryanalysis.com SAVLY 5 year eps estimated growth is 32% which isn't too shabby and I think the ADCT projected growth rate of 24% is just flat out wrong. Should be in the high 20's at least. Downside is the deal will fall through. IMO unlikely. CLEC in a box is they way the industry is consolidating. ---- Dave NTAP is also a fine selection as mentioned in a follow up response with an estimated long term growth rate of 45%. Bit pricy right now. For disclosure sake, I own JBL, SEBL, PSIX, SAVLY/ADCT and NTAP.

To: RFH who wrote (7903)	7/8/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Rob, I've linked your home page to my "AIM Example" pages so people can see some diversity beyond what I usually show. Hope you don't mind. I noted that your FAK is now at 49% Cash Reserve. Time for "vealies?" It would appear that your FSESX has a greater BETA than my VGENX. Your GUMM "AIM Posterboy" chart looks great. This new high makes it look like a "break-out" to a new trading range. Looking at the history, it would appear that this stock would have really frustrated the usual TA person. IIT, if I'm reading it right is up only from $16 to about $19 in the whole time you've owned it. That would sure frustrate Mr. Buynhold! However, you and AIM have managed a 146% gain! Congratulations! Best regards, Tom