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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RFH who wrote (7914)7/8/1999 3:26:00 PM
From: JZGalt  Respond to of 18928
 
Robert,

Y2k rebound was too early for the IT industry. Settle down for a long hot summer month period where the industry basis, has one final panic and then figures out there are very few companies that can install the systems needed post-y2k.

The eps number looked to be a pretty big miss for the quarter. Not good especially after the big cut 3-4 months ago. Now you have people wondering what other bad thing might happen. Remember CHRZ dropped off my screen? They are not only cutting eps estimates they are cutting the growth estimates. Ugly.

I had the same thing happen with ORB. They screwed up and took the eps hit early so the books would be cleaner in the fall. Got whacked and it has been dead money. Today they announced $600 million in new orders for the first half of 1999 and the street yawns.

WIND is another one I own hit by both eps drops, and eps growth target readjustments.

----
Dave



To: RFH who wrote (7914)7/8/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Dataminer1  Respond to of 18928
 
Hi Robert,
I put in a GTC order to buy @9.5 and didn't get filled today. Kind of surprised me the way the negative sentiment is swirling around. Thanks to AIM, I'm only down @3/4 a share as of today, while the buy and holder who purchased at my original price is quite underwater.

While the near-term outlook appears grim, I'm sticking around for a while. I've seen this kind of thing many times before. It's like a re-run of many of the stocks I've followed over the years.

An example is ADPT. A friend purchased it about a year ago at 19, and watched it drop to 8 on warnings, reduced expectations, and bad sentiment. I urged him to average down if he was going to keep it, but alas, he didn't. Now, with the stock around 40, I mentioned that he may want to sell 1/2 or at least some and lock in some profits, but some people don't get it.

I'm not shocked by the warning as many of it's peers have warned, but I'm confident in the long-run that AIM will serve me well on this one.
Heck, I suppose I could find myself even at some point and dump the whole thing in search of greater pastures, but I don't think I'm going to do that. I started with 50% cash reserve, and still have quite a bit.

We'll see what happens, but my guess is that next year at this time, this episode will be long forgotten, as they beat reduced earnings.
In the mean time, it may be a big yawn.

Regards,
Bill