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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RFH who wrote (7940)	7/13/1999 8:21:00 AM
From: Bernie Goldberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi, I'll just put in my 2cents here and refer to my last post. Give AIM a chance to do its thing. When your Cash Reserve goes above the IW recommendations you can add shares. Don't forget that AIM is a tool to manage risk!. If you choose to ignore it you are not using it. I hope there is nobody here at that thinks that this present market is going to continue forever. If that is the case there will be some long faces at some time in the future. How many would go to Las Vegas, roll the dice and let it ride for 10 consecutive passes. Bernie

To: RFH who wrote (7940)	7/13/1999 9:29:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Robert, Just a gut read after running some simulations on undervalued stocks that go up, as opposed to sideways or down. JBL would qualify as "up" stock, but not really undervalued. I think you want to use buy safe 0%, Sell safe 20% just after creating initial positions. This allows you to accumulate shares, but not sell the initial large block of shares unless the price moves significantly higher. Clearly if you use this as opposed to the vanilla buy safe 10%, Sell safe 10% you are making a judgement call that the stock is going to go up. For instance when I run the simulation on GALT, start date 2/11, $80k initial investment, initial cash level 25%, minimum trade 5% of portfolio. For Buy and Hold numbers $60k invested, $20k held as cash to make things equal. buy safe 0%, Sell safe 20% - $160,503 - 45% cash level, 12 trades buy safe 10%, Sell safe 10% - $153,170 - 48% cash level, 13 trades buy safe 20%, Sell safe 0% - $146,084 - 51% cash level, 14 trades Buy & Hold - $177,325 - 11% cash level 7/9, 0 trades. From this one example it appears that the lower the Buys safe and higher the sell safe, the closer you are to Mr. B&H. I like to buy cheap stocks and sell them when they become "fairly valued" or "overvalued" so buy safe 0%, Sell safe 20% would be the way I'd go when I thought the initial position was "cheap". JBL is in the middle to upper level of my comfort zone and my definitions of "cheap" and I sold 1/2 my position at $49 a while back. Honestly I still haven't figured out the "right combination" for AIM that suits me and I'm still working on it. Tom's testing of buy safe 20%, Sell safe 0% may work better once you have accumulated shares over a longer period of time and pulled a few Vealies along the way. ---- Dave

To: RFH who wrote (7940)	7/13/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

HI RFH, Since you've started the JBL account with a full load of Cash Reserve, you can use any of the three choices! With #3, you would first "Pull a vealie", however. At $47-1/2 you still have plenty of cash, so you'd take that minimum order that AIM advised ($713), divide it by 2 ($356) and add the 356 to your Portfolio Control. You are letting the "vealie" become your "Sell Resistance" in essence. This should be enough to eliminate the SELL of 15 shares and will incrementally raise the next buy and sell points just a bit. Then, if next week you have a similar situation, another vealie can be performed. You'd continue this until the cash reserve has dropped to 10% under what the Idiot Wave recommends. Then make your first Sell in earnest. When I get to the point that I'm fully funded in Cash Reserve, I only keep the GTC Buy orders in place - not the Sell orders. Then when the cash has been diluted by the rise in the equity value and I need to sell, I place that GTC Sell order. If the stock turns down before I actually sell, I have plenty of cash and the problem goes away as I use it up buying shares at a nice discount. In either case, the cash is reduced as a percent of the total value which eventually lets us start selling again. Best regards, Tom