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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (7977)	7/13/1999 9:49:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

It's the same as what they said last quarter.

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (7977)	7/17/1999 6:33:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10921

Thomas, Ian, & Thread, To continue our "When To Sell" discussion, I prepared some numbers we may use as a framework for discussion and decision making. Columns (a) and (b) are the peak earnings of the last up cycle and the fiscal year in which they occurred. Columns (c) and (d) are the peak prices of the last up cylcle and the month in which they occurred. Column (e) is the PE computed from columns (c) and (a). Columns (f) and (g) are recent EPS estimates for this and next fiscal year. (The companies' fiscal years have not changed from those in column (b).) Column (h) is the result of growing column (a) at 20% per year (industry growth rate) for 5 years (my guestimate for peak to peak interval)(factor 2.49). Column (i) is a PE of 20 (approximately the average of column (e)) applied to column (h). Column (j) adjusts the target for AMAT to reflect a 30% growth rate ($6.05 EPS) and the targets for EGLS, LRCX, SVGI, and UTEK to reflect a 0% peak to peak growth rate. I made these adjustments because they seem closer to current market valuations. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) AMAT $1.63 10/96 $30 8/95 18.40 $ 1.58 $2.68 $4.06 $ 81.17 $120.95 ASYT $1.36 3/98 $26 9/95 19.12 $(0.05) $1.48 $3.39 $ 67.73 EGLS $2.05 12/95 $40 8/95 19.51 $(0.51) $0.56 $5.10 $102.09 $ 41.00 KLAC $2.34 6/96 $48 9/95 20.51 $ 0.71 $1.66 $5.83 $116.53 LRCX $3.95 6/96 $73 7/95 18.48 $(1.58) $1.66 $9.84 $196.71 $ 79.00 NVLS $2.85 12/96 $44 8/95 15.44 $ 1.55 $2.95 $7.10 $141.93 SVGI $2.06 9/96 $50 8/95 24.27 $(0.82) $0.62 $5.13 $102.59 $ 41.20 UTEK $1.66 12/96 $48 8/95 28.92 $(0.13) $0.51 $4.13 $ 82.67 $ 33.20 Obviously, I hope to be rewarded for my efforts by receiving responses which help sharpen my analysis and ultimately lead to a successful sell strategy. Cary