To: eCurl who wrote (252 ) 7/14/1999 6:20:00 PM From: Mary Cluney Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 504
eC, Me: 1. China has great potential as an Internet play. You: Agree with points 1 & 2, but it is not company fundamental specific. Me: 1a.Rising tide lifts all boats, ships, and super tankers. Me: 2. China.com has a cool name. You: Agree with points 1 & 2, but it is not company fundamental specific. Me: 2a.Get real. It's more than just a cool name. Is Yahoo just a cool name. Where would they be if they were named Search Engine for the WWW ? Me: 3. China.com is at the right place at the right time and occupies the right space. You: Point 3 is debatable, as dispite the fact that they operate as a China portal, they only expect to have S1 million in revs in 1999 (out of a total of S16 million) Me: 3a. You just don't get it. It's not about how many marbles you have today. It's about how many marbles you will hve five years from now. Me: 4. China.com has a lot of money - besides the money they made on the IPO - they have raised quite a bit of money before the IPO and I suspect they have plans to raise a lot more money subsequent to the IPO - only now they have quite a bit more credibility. You: Point 4 , so they have money now, can they capitalize on it properly? Btw, they will not be able to raise more money from capital markets till at least 6 months post IPO (due to lock up period). Me: 4a. Only time will tell if anyone spends their money wisely. but for now, it is far better to have money than not to have money. Is six months suppose to be a long time? Besides, there are other sources for financing other than Capital markets in the public space. In any case, I don't think China.com will need more money over the next six months. Me: 5. China.com has the right partners - AOL owns 10% and has options for another 15% - SUNW, Edelson Technologies - and the Chinese government. If the Chinese government is going to intervene, think about what might happen to the other non-government related Internet companies? It may be a mixed blessing to have the Chinese government as your partner. Also, they seem to have positioned themselves in a way where they have access to all the latest internet technologies. You: Point 5, the investment amount for AOL was petty cash and does not have to be construed as a major stepping stone in their Asia strategy. AOL has Asia presence thru many other affiliations including Netscape (Asia). I am long AOL myself, but that does not mean that I applaud every move they make without looking into it deeper. Me: 5a. At 25%, $.25B is a pretty good committment. I don't think that they have anywhere near this amount anywhere else in Asia. Me: 6. Take another look at the names of some top management personnel - some of them sound distinctly occidental. I don't know what that means, specifically, but, I don't think that is going to hurt. You: Point 6. I know who represent senior management, and don't believe that you have stated anything that has changed my views Me. 6a. So clue us in - what do you know about their senior management and espeically the occidentals? Me: 7. Steve Case as a role model. Steve Case if you have forgotten has for nearly a decade surprised investors by coming up with creative new initiatives - quarter after quarter. Remember AOL had only 6 years ago, less than 250k subscribers. Can China.com use the same blueprint from hindsight to acheive similar, if not better results? You: Point 7. 6 years ago Steve Case operated in a different space with a lot less competition as well, hence it was relatively easier to realize the upside in a mature market. Me. 7a. This sounds like revisionist history to me. 6 years ago Steve Case didn't have a clue where he was going. No one saw the the Internet coming - not, Bill Gates, not Andy Grove, not Steve Case, not anyone. All Steve had to do was compete against Compuserv and Prodigy - companies that were owned by IBM and Sears with greatly vaster resources and technologies. There was nothing easy about what Steve Case achieved. Now, there is some hindsight as China.com tries to do in China what Steve did in America. And, Steve will be able to make an appointment to their board of directors. Mary