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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (85782)	7/15/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: Tom Chwojko-Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Once they are gone, they may never come back - creating less demand for your stock and lowers you PE in the short term and the long term. I agree with most of your response except for the long term part. I don't believe that in the long term a company that continues to grow revenues at a swift pace and decrease costs at a reasonable pace will be unattractive to ex-owners. On the contrary, there may be people that end up feeling like they've missed out by "listening" to analysts (in quotes, because simply looking at the two word recommendations is near useless) when year after year Intel grows at 20-30%. Log scales make the curves look smoother in the past. Tom

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (85782)	7/15/1999 2:20:00 PM
From: Bob Kim	Respond to of 186894

Mary, RE: Tom,>>>why should he?<<< As an investor, you can rely on some analysts for numbers and others for the direction of the stock. Dan Niles appears to at least have a good sense of the numbers. Time will tell in regard to the direction of the stock. Quarters are difficult for a company to forecast 90 days ahead. Microsoft is an exception. I think it's usually a good sign that the analyst knows something when he/she makes corresponding changes to the earnings model. Niles did lower his expectations for 2Q when he made his negative comments. However, Merrill's Joe Osha, made no changes to his model when he upgraded INTC a few weeks ago. He carried the same model he had in April through the quarter. Post 2Q, Osha lowered his revenue forecast for 00E by $2.3 billion. That makes me wonder about his numbers. Actually, he's been pretty good at estimating operating expenses but not the corresponding revenue levels. It's an interesting change to see Merrill give Intel every benefit of the doubt now when a year ago they were so negative. Even Intel mgmt made fun of Merrill at an analyst meeting. Regards, Bob