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Technology Stocks : Flextronics International (FLEX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy Muldawer who wrote (1127)	7/16/1999 10:09:00 AM
From: Frank Drumond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1422

I think the sell off is that the EPS did not keep up with the revenue increase. Some are probably nervous about the 20% gap between the two. Would have been nice if EPS was up 40% plus like revenue. To me this is OK as I would expect higher levels of investment to maintain the growth. Still lots of upside in the revenue numbers. FLEX has great growth potential and is making money unlike an Internut stock.

To: Judy Muldawer who wrote (1127)	7/16/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: MGV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1422

Judy, The short answer is that revenue # came in about $20-30 MM below most of the street's estimates. They were able to make consensus bottom line despite revenue shortafll because of gross and operating margin increases. Because the share price had run up recently, the revenue shortfall was enough to cause the sell off. Soundview, I understand, downgraded the stock. Most everyone raised estimates going forward. That is the key. FLEX will do fine. I used the dip as an opportunity to add. The reason for the revenue shortfall was two programs that slid into the current quarter. Second, guidance forward is outstanding. I understand revenues for the coming year have been guided up by as much as 25% to make this year's forward expected revenue increase come to over 60%.

To: Judy Muldawer who wrote (1127)	7/16/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: Robert G. Harrell	Respond to of 1422

Judy, Needham downgraded it today which added to the usual buy on the rumor sell on the news sell off. biz.yahoo.com I stupidly raised my stop from 51 to 53 a few days ago in a moment of euphoric greediness and got taken out today. Now I have to decide whether A) to immediately buy back what I lost as close to 53 as possible, B) buy even more because the Needham downgrade was a gift, or C) wait to buy back because it will pull back further before resuming its upward climb. I have a talent for setting my stops too close to support and getting whipsawed. I'm open to any suggestions, opinions about when to buy back. Bob

To: Judy Muldawer who wrote (1127)	7/16/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: rich evans	Respond to of 1422

I think Flex results and future forecasts are being misinterpreted. The company indicated 750mill+ for Q2 but said margin would go down because of ramp up expenses, and assimilated new acquisitions for their IT,training, ramps etc. But with the hgiher volume they should be getting some SGA leverage in the 2nd half. They also said to hold estimates for Q2 where they are using the new acquisitions as 0% net margin until they could get their forecasts/computer modeling together later in Q2 and then would advise. They indicated Q3 would be once again very strong and their strongest quarter with similar sequential % gains as in the past. So if we use 750 mill for Q2 and about 900 for Q3 and assume Q4 will be flat like last year we get 3 bill in revs. Only Q2 should have much of a margin hit and in fact margins could do better in 2nd half if SGA goes down toward announced long term target of 3%. Tax rate they said stays at 12%. Using I think 54 mill shares diluted and a blended 3% net margin I think will give a good estmate for year end March of 2000 plus about 2 cents a quarter in amortization. That is how I came up with 1.80 a share thereabouts so stock now at 27 times earnings PE forward which is the average for Tier I companies according to keith Dunne. Looks like a buying opportunity with this pullback especially if it continues into the 40s. Rich