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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (20287)	7/16/1999 5:13:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>>it was a break out last July just about this time too. <G><<< James, the billy breakout last year was in late June, however unlike last year, it seems the billy break is lagging the pack, not leading. bb

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (20287)	7/16/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

TALK FROM TRENCHES: BIDING TIME; DUISENBERG DAMAGE; BOJ DLRS 12:40 EDT 07/16 By Isobel Kennedy NEW YORK (MktNews) - U.S. Treasuries are higher across the curve Friday with sources attributing the bid in the market to professional short covering ahead of the weekend, China-Taiwan safe-haven worries and German bunds coming off the lows. The short end is receiving most of the lift as players put on steepeners. Sources say given the current range it makes some sense to buy the short end and sell the longer end as players bide their time until Greenspan's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony next Thursday. Speaking of the Fed, the market was also comforted Friday morning when Richmond Fed Broaddus, an inflation hawk, was quoted in the Washington Post referring to CPI: "I'm enormously comforted by the most recent number and the one before it. I was worried by the number in April. I knew it might be an anomaly, but now it's clear that it was." Thursday's comment by European Central Bank Prez Duisenberg "a bias (tightening) is gradually creeping into our consideration" still haunts the European bond market. Since yesterday, the sensitive five-year sector has risen about 26-28 basis points in yield. The markets made some small recovery earlier today but they have still been badly wounded. Players are wondering why there has been no attempt by other European officials to undue the Duisenberg damage. On a lighter note, one market analyst says there has been market speculation that Duisenberg's "seemingly out of the blue comment ... was part of a war of words with U.S Treasury Secretary Summers. There have been some reports suggesting the recent G-7 meeting was not harmonious." Looks like Larry may not be getting off to such a congenial start. The Street has also been talking about a Japanese press story saying the U.S. Fed recently declined to intervene in the foreign exchange market at the request of the Bank of Japan. Whether there is any truth to this no one knows, but there are few things are certain. U.S. monetary officials are very reluctant to intervene in the FX market. It is the Treasury not the N.Y. Fed that would make that decision. It is the N.Y. Fed that would implement that decision. That said, there have been occasions when the U.S. has intervened in the FX markets. The last time was in June 1998 when the U.S. sold dollars in cooperation with the BOJ using U.S reserves. At the time, the dollar was over Y140. In August 1995 the U.S. bought dollars for yen and deutsche marks. At that time, the dollar was at Y97 and the U.S. was embroiled in the Mexican crisis. But more interesting is this question: What is the BOJ doing with all the dollars they have amassed during the interventions that began in June? The market estimates they bought about $20 to $25 billion in dollars and euros in the last month, with the purchases clearly more weighted to the dollar side. Usually they would come in and buy U.S. Treasuries with the money. Remember when they were selling dollars back in 1998? They were quick to come in and sell about $12 billion in T-bills in one fell swoop! Back in the USA, the trend by corporations to sell large, jumbo deals continues. Wal-Mart is the latest to announce they will sell a $5 billion global deal in the next few weeks. Tentative talk is for maturities of two, five and ten years with Lehman on the books. By the way, they just filed a $10 billion SEC shelf so the deal could grow. Are they gonna steal Ford's thunder so soon? Just last week, Ford's $8.6 billion dollar deal was crowned the largest in corporate history. Heading into the weekend, some veterans are remembering the Apollo-11 flight to the moon that took place 30 years ago today. Of course, the majority of Street players had not even been born yet! >>>Also, DELL predicts one of the big five will drop out of PC market. >>>Sounds like IBM to me. foxmarketwire.com