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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4694)7/16/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 12823
 
Thread, re: ATHM, T, and Open Cable Implications

[I was going to post this in the ATHM thread, but for the most part I'm getting fewer and fewer replies when I do. Where-o-where did AHhaha go?]

I seldom find myself in total harmony with the fool, and today's no different. But in this
particular take of their's concerning T and ATHM I find that they may have something
of value worth contemplating. The fool uses Apple to make their point, and in the past I've used Wang to strive for the same end. It makes no difference as far as I'm concerned, because these two examples both arrive at the same level of closure.

fool.com

Enjoy, Frank Coluccio

--------------------- snip:

Shares of Excite@Home (Nasdaq: ATHM) continue to decline because people fear that it will lose its exclusive grip on the cable properties owned by AT&T (NYSE: T). I question this logic. Has Apple Computer (Nasdaq: AAPL) taught us anything? Where is the power in offering a closed system? A company must do all of the work itself. In contrast, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) access is essentially an open standard. Over 300 companies support it and are building for it, including Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) -- just two of the companies working on DSL together. Today, Intel announced the launch of always-on Intel DSL modems later this year. Estimates call for 2 million DSL users by the end of the year 2000, up from about 640,000 today, and closing in on cable usage estimates.

If cable lines were essentially open, most of the technology industry would move quickly to build for cable access and the technology's user-base would very likely expand more quickly. Solutions to rising traffic issues, one of AT&T's arguments for keeping access limited, would be addressed and probably solved by the entire industry. As it is, more corporate momentum is going into DSL instead.

I believe that a closed stance, on almost any issue, usually arises from a position of fear rather than one of confidence. If you have the best products, consumers will side with you no matter who the competitors are.

Anyway, cable modem has many supporters as well, most of them cable and phone-related companies as well as box makers that are beginning to install cable modems in PCs. But this is far from the consortium of giants supporting and soon pushing DSL. High-speed access also represents Internet 2, or the next stage of the Internet. Estimates are that up to 130 million people will use broadband by 2007. How many will use cable and how many DSL and satellite? Predictions abound. The Fool's July Internet Report covers broadband cable, DSL and satellite access.

Now, the main near-term event:

Excite@Home is expected to announce earnings on Tuesday, July 20. This is the first time that @Home's results will be combined with Excite's, so the company will show a few sets of numbers to make everything easier to understand. A loss for the new company of $0.02 per share is anticipated. It is still believed that the company will be profitable by year-end.

@Home ended the first quarter with 460,000 subscribers. It should have grown that number by over 35% sequentially this quarter, to 610,000 or more. One million is still the magic bogey number for year-end. Second quarter revenue should be near $90 million, up about 15% from last quarter en route to over $400 million in revenue for all of 1999, up from $48 million last year. The number of homes ready for two-way cable access should reach 17 million, up 2 million from the first quarter. Meanwhile, Excite's page views will likely increase by about 7 to 10 million from last quarter's 77 million. Excite most recently reported 28 million registered users.

Excite@Home is valued at about $17 billion, or nearly half of Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) at $32 billion. When you consider that Excite is a leading portal as well, and that with it you get @Home's cable penetration, which should reach nearly two-thirds of North American homes, the price of Excite@Home is far from crazy if Yahoo's price is anywhere near sane. Fear of open access is restraining Excite@Home's stock.

I can understand why, but I don't necessarily agree with it. Even if AT&T opens its cable lines, @Home will retain a fat lead and many advantages over competitors. Remember: literally dozens of long-distance services are available through common phone lines, but most people use the leading names (AT&T, MCI, and so forth) for obvious reasons: marketing power, brand name, and these are often the "default" providers. That's convenience.

However cable access rights evolve, Excite@Home should land at, or near, the top of the industry. Management would need to blunder worse than Charlie Brown to lose its position. For thoughts from someone who knows the related legal issues inside and out, read this excellent Post of the Day on Excite@Home from a Fool named Supertanker, who is a municipal attorney.

So, next week we'll see results from Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), America Online (NYSE: AOL), and Excite@Home (Nasdaq: ATHM). Wednesday we previewed America Online's results. Today, we considered Excite@Home's quarter. We have no information from Amazon, although we mentioned possibilities on Tuesday after the toy store announcement.

Amazon's revenue should rise ghostlike (with seemingly little effort) to the $300 million level this quarter following last quarter's $293 million. Amazon's sales have risen from below ground level to surely top $1 billion this year. Of course, the effort has truly been tremendous, and barriers to reaching $1 billion in online sales for new companies are high and rising. Most new companies will be weighed down with chains.

Soon, either here or when writing a Fool News article, I want to discuss the several new broadband companies that have been coming public. Until next time, be Foolish. And remember: quarterly results are short-term results only. Invest for the long-term.

Fool on!



To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4694)7/16/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12823
 
A last post from the NANOG list on the Tororonto Explosion, followed by some comments of my own.

The NANOG poster stated:

I had customers from St. Catherines all the way to well out past oshawa affected. A lot of voice connections outside the downtown core were hit-and-miss, whereby after trying about 10 or so times, I could make the call. For the most part, things seemed to stable out at about 16:00 EDT.

My Comments:

During the mid-Seventies I was assigned the on-the-fly task of being the AT&T Long Lines Restoration Coordinator, on the spot, during the worst fire disaster that has ever hit the telecommunications industry during peace time.

It was the 13th Street (Second Avenue) Tandem Office incident in Manhattan which served not only as a local end office for parts of lower Manhattan, but also the transiting office for most of AT&T's interstate-bound traffic from the Long Lines HQ Building (NY1, NY2, NY4, Network Radio and TV, and Overseas Control at 32 6th Avenue), as well as much of NY Telephone Downstate traffic routes.

Over 700,000 residential and business phone lines were knocked out for several months, to boot.

While I wouldn't want to take anything away from the horrific service disruption that occurred in the Hinsdale, Illinois incident in '88, the latter was a mere BarBQue compared to the blaze that took place at 13th Street, which raged for two days. It eventually claimed fourteen fire fighters, and untold physical losses to telco plant and services.

The firefighters, May They Rest In Peace, in case you are wondering, had been directly exposed to two full days of pcb's resulting from burning cables and other carcinogens during the lengthy siege, and for weeks beyond that point during clearing and demising procedures.

Today's story concerning the Toronto Central Office Explosion highlights a clear lack of self-healing capability and a lackluster level of survivability which exists in all COs today, despite all that's been written to the contrary with respect to self-healing SONET rings (which are only effective if breaks occur in outside plant while the COs are intact), DACS switching, automatic protection switching, etc.

When disaster strikes the CO, there is usually little recourse but to perform manual extrication measures from the particular situation, because the potential scope of what can go wrong (and usually does when the shit hits the fan) is just too broad to economically prepared against, much less be able to predict.

With the levels of densification now being facilitated through DWDM, and the ensuing higher levels of customer data that they will support, these risks and potential liabilities can only increase over time in terms that are truly logarithmic, unless a more intelligent means is derived to distribute said risk. I have been following this sort of thing for quite some time, now, perhaps due to the personal level of involvement and near trauma that I experienced twenty some odd years ago.

More recently during the Seaport Fire at a Consolidated Edison substation that took out a good part of the downtown Manhattan Wall Street Area during the Early Nineties, my consultancy was commissioned by a Japanese consortium, whose brokerage and insurance members were hit extremely hard by the incident.

After receiving powers or agency allowing us to act on the consortium's behalf before the NY State PSC and in contacts with various utilities, we came to realize that a general lack of preparedness is not something that is unique to the Telecommunications industry. There's some scary stuff going on out there, folks. And with the increased dependence on ever increasing amounts of information and processing services, it gets scarier all the time.

One way that has been moderately successful in combating severe utility outages is for the industry to mobilize mutual assistance programs, such as the NY City MAP, which was moderately successful in restoring services during the World Trade Center bombing earlier this decade. Power grid alliances are also helpful, but neither of these do any good to the local residents or businesses who are fed power or telecomms directly from end offices of either utility type when they are neutralized by disasters.

Comments welcome, as always.

Regards, Frank Coluccio



To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4694)7/18/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Curtis E. Bemis  Respond to of 12823
 
More on Toronto meltdown--email backs up phone net--

**multiple sources**

Again, email became the backup for phone networks. :-)

Mr. Gutteridge, for example, had to
co-ordinate the city's emergency fire and
ambulance services from the radio room at
Fire Hall No. 1 on Adelaide Street when both
his office line and cellphone failed. When the
backup system conked out at Bell Canada,
ambulance services managed to notify Mr.
Gutteridge about the magnitude of the
problem by E-mail.

Phones go dead, Toronto
put on hold
Fire in Bell Canada switching station
knocks out more than 100,000 lines

PETER CHENEY
The Globe and Mail; With files from Krista
Foss, Dave Leeder, Oliver Bertin and Paul
Knox
Saturday, July 17, 1999

Toronto -- An accidentally dropped tool was
the beginning of a chain-reaction disaster that
led to a communications meltdown for
Canada's biggest city yesterday.

For Toronto, it was a day when the phones
didn't ring, credit cards didn't work, and
countless plans went out the window, from
ordering an airline ticket to closing a real
estate deal.

The breakdown, which lasted for most of the
business day, had repercussions across the
country. Credit-card transactions as far away
as Vancouver couldn't be processed, and
hundreds of bank machines went out of
service.

Toronto found itself having what amounted to
an electronic nervous breakdown. Some
brokerages couldn't process trades.
Customers found themselves unable to call an
ambulance, order a taxi, or pay with plastic.

At the Art Gallery of Ontario, extra guards
were required for Old Masters paintings after
security lines went down. Traffic-light
sequencing was knocked out. Travel agents
couldn't book flights -- or take calls from
customers.

And if you were hoping to get rich quick,
there was bad news: Ontario Lottery Corp.
terminals were out of service, making it
impossible to buy last-minute tickets for last
night's unusually high Super 7 draw.

"People are passing up $10-million," said
H.W. Chan, manager of the Sun Wa Book
Store on Spadina Avenue.

The cause of the problems was a telephone
system breakdown that began with an
early-morning fire at a Bell Canada switching
centre on Simcoe Street downtown. The fire
reportedly began after a repairman dropped a
tool.

The tool landed on electrical equipment and
the fire spread quickly. At its peak, more than
70 firefighters were on the scene.

What followed was a series of failures that
revealed the fragility of the complex
communication systems society takes for
granted. Although backup batteries were in
place to power the switching system, they
were designed to last only a few hours.

The backup plan called for the use of diesel
emergency generators after the batteries
failed, but officials decided that wasn't safe
because of the water left by emergency
sprinklers.

When the batteries began failing, at around
10.30 a.m., service to approximately 113,000
Bell phone lines was wiped out. Most of
those lines were in Toronto's downtown core,
the most communications-intensive patch in
Canada.

The breakdown left Barry Gutteridge,
Toronto's commissioner of works and
emergency services, shaken about the city's
vulnerability. Mr. Gutteridge said there will be
an investigation into the accident, with a view
to reducing the city's exposure in the future.

Other than a repairman injured at the site of
the explosion, Mr. Gutteridge said, the
disruption injured no one. Instead, it caused a
series of potential crises that were averted
only through luck and improvisation.

Mr. Gutteridge, for example, had to
co-ordinate the city's emergency fire and
ambulance services from the radio room at
Fire Hall No. 1 on Adelaide Street when both
his office line and cellphone failed. When the
backup system conked out at Bell Canada,
ambulance services managed to notify Mr.
Gutteridge about the magnitude of the
problem by E-mail.

Despite the frustrating communications
problems, Mr. Gutteridge said, fire and
ambulance services responded efficiently. The
host of complications included the failure of all
telephone lines to the Hospital for Sick
Children. A mobile radio unit was sent to the
hospital to handle emergency calls.

Bell Canada spokesman Don Hogarth said
the 911 emergency service was maintained,
although its capacity to handle calls was
impaired. Mr. Gutteridge said that if 911 had
gone down, mobile radio units would have
been sent to affected areas to give members
of the public a way of calling in emergencies.

Mr. Hogarth said the area most affected was
between College Street to the north, Queen
Street to the south, Bathurst Street to the
west and Bay Street to the east. The
shutdown "zigzagged" to areas outside that
core zone as well, he said, depending which
phone lines they relied on.

Several investigations are being conducted,
including a Labour Ministry investigation into
the industrial accident, the fire marshal's
investigation, and Bell Canada's investigation,
in which Mr. Gutteridge said the city will be
involved.

The effects of the outage were widespread,
ranging from the institutional to the personal.

Nancy Tarek of Oakville sat in the lobby of
Toronto General Hospital for several hours
yesterday, pumped full of painkillers, Valium
and other sedatives after a medical
procedure.

Because of her condition, Ms. Tarek wasn't
allowed to go home by herself. But because
the phones were out, she couldn't call her
family to come pick her up.

"I'm just sitting here half-medicated," she said.

Some Torontonians found virtually all their
communication options cut off: Telephones,
fax machines, pagers and cellphones routed
through the Adelaide Street Bell switching
system were all knocked out.

Many securities dealers had problems
communicating trades and relied on
cellphones until phone lines were back up, but
the Toronto Stock Exchange kept operating.

At University Avenue Funds, mutual-fund
sales people who couldn't make calls simply
went home.

A skeleton staff remained, processing
transactions made before the phones crashed.
"I'm trying to fax over trades to the bank and
they won't go," accountant Shelina Dossa
said.

Almost one-tenth of the cash machines
operated by the country's six big banks were
out of service for parts of the day, the
Canadian Bankers Association said. The
Toronto-Dominion Bank was hardest hit.

Hundreds of bank branches lost access to
their systems. Many simply shut their doors
and referred customers to other areas where
phone lines were still working.

The electronic failure created a short-lived
bonanza for couriers, who suddenly found
themselves in high demand. At the Printing
House copy centre on University Avenue,
manager Chris Gennings said the cost of a
courier had been driven up by the briefly
altered market conditions.

"You go out on the street and offer them $10
and they say the going rate's $20," he said.
"And if you argue, suddenly the going rate's
$25."

The breakdown created a nightmare for
retailers, who were unable to authorize debit
or credit card transactions. Some, including
Loblaws, accommodated customers -- and
created a bankers' nightmare -- by taking
customers' debit card numbers and phone
numbers so banks could call them back to
confirm the transaction.

Some businesses decided to do credit card
transactions even though they couldn't get
them approved.

"I hope and pray a lot of trustworthy people
are shopping today," one retail manager said.

Hospitals and other medical services were
seriously affected. Phone service was out at
the Hospital for Sick Children, Mount Sinai
Hospital, Toronto Western Hospital and
Toronto General Hospital. Hospitals were
also affected by the failure of pagers, which
they use to track down specialists, surgeons
and doctors on call.

Sick Children's poison-information and
medical-information lines were shut down.
Those two lines usually receive nearly 400
calls a day from all over the city and province.

The failure created chaos for many law
offices, which found they were unable to close
real-estate deals because the main
clearinghouse for title searches was
unavailable, putting millions of dollars worth of
potential transactions in jeopardy.

Travel agents were particularly hard hit. David
Gallie, manager of the Flight Centre on Queen
Street West, said the day was a wipeout for
his business.

"I've lost $30,000 worth of sales," he said.
"Clients can't order tickets. I can't call the
airlines, and I can't book a seat. And I can't
sell a ticket because the credit-card
authorization system is down."

For Toronto police, the failure meant the loss
of phone and computer systems, although
their radios and most cellphones still worked.

Constable Don Petrie, who works in the
Eaton Centre, said the phone failure gave
police "a bit of a taste" of what could happen
if the millennium bug wipes out computer
systems on January 1.

"It's a bucket of cold water," he said. "It
shakes you back to what it was like when we
didn't have these services."