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To: JohnG who wrote (35402)	7/16/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Handset Sales <They claimed forecast for total worldwide CDMA handset shipments were 38MM for FYE 9/99 and 65MM for FYE 9/00 for a 70% increase.> Sorry, I don't have any more data than you see round here. But I saw something like 65 million ASICs by the end of 1999. Maybe they mean sales this year, not cumulative. 38MM for FYE9/99 would see about 53m cumulative by Dec/99. My guess at the beginning of the year was about 53m cumulative handsets [subscribers] for year end, which seemed improbably high, but it made sense to me considering the growth curve, countries coming on line, companies bringing out their models. Now it seems that will definitely be reached. Whichever of those figures is correct, the incoming tide is of tsunami proportions. Unfortunately, China's bosses are rumbling and have put their military on 'start the engines, make a bit of noise and do some saluting, polish a few muskets and glare at the enemy = Taiwan'. Irwin in the conference was hopeful that politics [in China and between Taiwan/USA/Japan etc etc] would allow China to go ahead with CDMA. Fortunately, both the China and Taiwan leaderships seem a bit too civilized to actually get too murderous. But you never know - it's never far from the surface. Clinton should just write out a US$1billion cheque and give it to China as an act of goodwill over the embassy bombing. That is a very cheap price and would be repaid many times over in improved trade and human happiness. That's only about 150 Pentagon Toilet Seats. Bluster and military bullying by China/Taiwan/USA will make a big mess. It seems to me that some constitutional arrangement between China and Taiwan should be easy enough. They could aim towards a UN type constitution - a joint venture, but with independent approaches. A bit like a marriage. We will sell little cdmaOne or cdma2000 in China or Taiwan if there is much shooting going on. Irwin should get on the phone to Al Gore and tell him to write out a $1bn apology check [or cheque if to be cashed in Hong Kong] so that cdmaOne can roll out. Woe is us! Mqurice [Rest of the CDG conference to come]