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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stewart Elliot who wrote (4150)	7/17/1999 2:50:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Seasonality is perfectly normal in every business. I sold TV time for 20 Years and JC is right. Summertime slows business down. Something like 8% of the country is on vacation every week, and the rest are working a little bit less. That was a great post, and I agree that eBay's statistical trend is an important metric, but the Street knows about seasonality from Media Metrix, the portals, and Amazon. It's not new. If eBay can keep this steady uptrend over the summer and champion its reliability (once they know they're sufficiently reliable), I think the sky's still the limit for eBay.

To: Stewart Elliot who wrote (4150)	7/21/1999 5:19:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Yahoo auctions counts are VERY, VERY, VERY deceiving. Well, I must admit I was starting to change my mind on the success of Yahoo auctions. I have just spent the past several hours doing analysis, and here is the real scoop: While the REPORTED auction counts on Yahoo auctions currently total 490,000, one must be careful when comparing apples to oranges. While eBay is adding about 450,000 items per day (derived by looking at the item numbers, over the past several weeks), Yahoo is adding about 30,000 items per day. That is a 15:1 in favor of eBay (not the 5:1 when comparing raw auction counts). When you consider that Yahoo auctions get FAR fewer bids than eBay auctions (look at the EXTREME lack of bids on software items on Yahoo auctions, for example), the picture becomes even more bleak for Yahoo auctions. That said, I am out of eBay, because growth has been a real challenge for them recently. Dell and Lycos are just two well-known names to enter the auction business IN THE PAST WEEK. While this is probably good for eBay in the long-term, it is bad for them in the short-term. I will re-enter eBay WHEN it finds a way to distinguish itself from all the clutter. Right now, eBay is simply flailing, and I am not impressed by its growth in the past few months. Now would be a good time for Yahoo to make a bid for eBay. (Microsoft and AOL would also make good buyers, and maybe even Amazon, which has the best designed auction site of them all.)