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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (6846)	7/17/1999 8:48:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa Why is Bob playing for the last dime when a miscalculation may cream us all?" Sounds like you think we are on the edge of a cliff right here ready to go down into a bear market. I am not sure what you mean here. A short tibit here that I once heard a couple of years ago: A real or theoretical investor in Japan sells at 30,000 in the middle eighties and the Japanese index goes to 39,000 before dropping off to the teens. Is this investor wrong for pulling out early and taking profits or "smart" for taking his profits even though he missed the top and then watching the market subsequently tank?(Debatable) If the market has a severe valuation problem it would be better to make an early call and take profits than to wait for some unexpected exogenous shock to effect the market and be late retreating from the market. If the market has 5% upside potential here does it make sense to be fully invested if the downside potential is more severe? Hard call. My interpretation of the young lad example is that a person in their 20's would be 100% invested in stocks based on Bob's advice-not 80-20, 70-30. Bob calls, accurate for the most part, are cutting it close. Stay 100% invested...valuations are historically high be vigilant...stay 100% invested...pe's are at all time highs...stay 100% invested...the market is priced for perfection...with valuations, pe's and a perfect market where they are at maybe it is time to change the call especially since interest rates appear to be headed slightly higher in part due to these high valuations. I am not referring to asset allocation refinements here I am talking about a full or partial sell call. Bob had a similar philisophy in 1987. (I know new timing model now.) Stay fully invested...up until the crash. Hopefully what blindsided him then does not blindside him now.