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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semi_infinite who wrote (7998)	7/18/1999 2:23:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

Both First Call and I/B/E/S give about 5 year historical earnings with the % surprise. Forward looking P/E s are also a lagging indicator as they continue to look quite good. Then the estimates start getting revised downward. By the time you see this while living through it, it's too late to make the best gain. FWIW, Ian.

To: semi_infinite who wrote (7998)	7/18/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: McDuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

{OT?}Interesting chart. It's says to me that quality stocks count! Question to the thread: If fabs plan their capital equipment buys to get all the equipment up and running at the same time, in theory, vendors supplying the equipment builders might be a leading indicator. Is there some phase lag in the charts that may indicate a cyclical peak? To opine on my own question. Probably not. It doesn't jump off of Ray's chart. I have worked for several equipment builders and OEM's supplying automation to equipment builders, but I've found they are as blind to future demand as anyone. This may be due to all players in the food chain "overbuying" in good times and "underbuying" in bad times. This gets supply and demand out of phase. My favorite predictor for the peaks is "...it's really different this time" <VBG> McDuck