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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26564)	7/18/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 74651

see next post

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26564)	7/18/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

>> what are folks supposed to be looking forward to Settlement of the doj trial. However it's resolved, it will have a positive impact of the stock.

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26564)	7/18/1999 6:27:00 PM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Given that Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Vanguard, and & all these monster funds have huge stakes in MSFT; and now they're topping all record levels; isn't it tougher & tougher for MSFT to go down like you're predicting? - I mean, if MSFT pulled back 10% on Tues; I wouldn't be surprised - but I think you'd have to agree that for the next 20-30 years, the trend of the equity market is in MSFT's favor

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26564)	7/18/1999 6:27:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

Morgan, I don't think MSFT could go below 80 if it maintains its current value one day after earnings. There is the settlement posibility along with the launch of Window2000. They may want to settle so that a dark cloud will not hang over the Win2k launch. If Windows2k is on time-- October to December, i would expect MSFT to outperform on a relative basis. This is going to be the biggest MSFT product launch since Windows95. It is hard to imagine MSFT keeping its value if the rest of the market tanks----is it possible? The good thing about MSFT is that it has not run up like some others this year like Sun Microsystems. Maybe it will do better on a relative basis. It is really hard to try to figure out a scenario looking beyond earnings. I am bullish on MSFT but that won't matter if the rest of the market tanks. Sometimes i feel a decline will be short-lived simply because of Greenspan. That one rate cut that took place in the afternoon really surprised traders last year-----he can do it again if he feels the market is collapsing. Could that keep hedge fund managers tame and not too greedy. It may be a factor. That is why it is hard to be convinced of a bearish outlook. I still feel bearish on the market short term (up to the end of September) but i am on the fence going into October earnings. Will Greenspan allow such market disasters? I doubt it. He would probably cut interest rates. That is why i might be forced to change my position on the market. RE: MSFT on Monday MSFT should gap up Monday at the open but after earnings---it will really depend on the earnings. Of course if the S and P futures start off down 10 or 15 before the open tomorrow, then a good opening is unlikely. If the future are flat to positive--then the 101 at the open is a likely scenario, IMHO.--just a guess. This market is such a hard animal to understand---more complicated due to Y2K.

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26564)	7/18/1999 7:43:00 PM
From: ed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Well , if there is a sell off after the earning according to your theory, it should happen on Tuesday, well , do yout think those 50+ MM shares traded on Friday by the big boys will only be satisfied for $7 ? I do not think so !!!

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26564)	7/19/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: fooledalot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Morgan, Like you I anticipate a sell-off by MSFT tomorrow for the same reasons you have cited. The only caveat to this--and I would give it long odds at that--is the way the market reacted to IBM's earnings last QTR. I have not heard as much hype about IBM's expected earnings as I have MSFT's. IBM could very well duplicate their performance of last QTR and the market may react as it did before. If so, MSFT will go along for the ride. Your thoughts?? Regards, f