Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (4739)	7/19/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

"How does anyone justify the market values of the equipment providers like Redback, Paradyne, Globecom etc. in that context is something beyond my comprehension. Anyone care to take a hack if there are any good equipment vendors with stock valuations closer to ground?" Chuck, Easy answer. DSL is finally for real. I've been following them for at least 6 years now. 1999 is the very first year that I honestly felt it was finally going to be deployed beyond the five years of "break through" testing results <VBG>. I think the biggest impetus has been AT&T buying TCI. That really lit the fire under the telcos to get moving. I think you will see a strong ramp up in the coming years. Hence the astronomical valuations of the DSL equipment player. Some say DSL is too late. Some say it's a limited business market. Some say fixed wireless will beat DSL. Some say HFC has already beat DSL. Some say VDSL will win. etc., etc... As for who have decent fundamentals...well that's been my six month quest. Lots of ideas popped up. The only ones that have sound fundamentals, have some pretty severe problems (PAIR is a good example). I currently am tracking 16 DSL equipment companies. I had narrowed down my best bet to an HDSL play, Adtran (sym: ADTN). But while I was twiddling my thumbs, figuring out if HDSL2 was going to be a hot technology, ADTN went from 20 to 37! And apparently based on plain old HDSL technology. Ouch. DSL investing is not fun for an investor who likes to see a clear path to a ramp up in sales/earnings. It's not clear at all. MikeM(From Florida) PS Globecom is kind of in a different league. Although a DSL specialist, it's one of those astronomically valued, "chip" companies Wall Street has just gone ballastic on. Another puzzling shift to me.