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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4740)	7/19/1999 1:23:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Mike, <Some say DSL is too late. Some say it's a limited business market. Some say fixed wireless will beat DSL. Some say HFC has already beat DSL. Some say VDSL will win. etc., etc...> I personally believe that there is merit to all these arguments. None of them is a killer but they will reduce/split the pie enough so that most technologies will not build sufficient volumes to justify the technology bets that people are making. Regarding PAIR and ADTN: I like both of them though I sold ADTN a bit too early at 27 after the runup from 18-27. Now, I am looking forward to the earning for the quarter to see what I want to do. PAIR, on the otherhand, is a interesting story - very little down side and probably a great acquisition play for some of the high priced players. Wouldn't it be funny if RBAK buys PAIR? I am not saying it will happen but just pointing to the insanity of valuations. About HDSL deployments: my contacts in the industry tell me that there will not be much volume on this technology for a while. I don't believe ADTN or PAIR or ADC are looking at unit cross over from HDSL to HDSL2 for another 5 years. By that time HDSL2 ASPs will have been driven so low, it will not benefit most players except for the low cost ones like ADTN. Rythms, CrossPoint and other players would have to build a lot of credibility with the business community before they can steal any meaningful T1-class market share from the AT&T and PacBells of the world. Chuck