Ladies and Gentlemen:
I'm pleased to report the results of the first quarter of the Loral price prediction
pool. Most of you will recall we started this pool in April to commemorate the first
anniversary of our April 21, 1998 all time high. 66 entries were submitted
predicting the high/low/close for the one year period to end April 21, 2000. Winner will
be the entry with the lowest sum of the absolute value of error in each of the h/l/c
predicts. As of 7/21, our h/l/c was 22.875/16.125/20.125
Overall, we were up in the latest month 2 9/16, or 14.6%, making a new high for the
contest on July 15 and no new low. Loral's price performance during the period was
led by (and badly lagged) Globalstar which rose an amazing 80% on news of completing its financing requirements and one successful launch.
During the last month Loral outperformed peers GMH (+3.9%), and IRID (-23%) as well as
major indices Dow (+1.7%) and NASDAQ (+5%.) Loral underperformed relative to SPOT (+24%) and, of course, GSTRF. Since the contest start, Loral's 14.6% gain bested GMH(+11%), IRID (-63%), the DOW (+4%), and NASDAQ (+11%), but underperformed relative to SPOT (+37.7%) and GSTRF (+56.9%)
As for the contest standings nearly every entrant's score improved substantially, and there were few changes in the relative standings. The exception being our courageous token short "SofLD" who dropped from third to fourth place, passed by Brian W. Mr. Proofsheet remains in first place and a close of below 17 or above 26 ¾ is required to change that.
Extrapolating the stock price action this month and quarter to the end of the contest, using arithmetic and geometric progressions suggest the following h/l/c/winners might be predicted.
Arithmetic, this month, 49.1/16.125/43.2/VASCARMan
Arithmetic, this quarter, 31.6/16.125/27.8/crawlingbug
Geometric, this month, 73.7/16.125/68.6/GeneralHQ
Geometric, this quarter, 34.4/16.125/30.29/mmeggs
Present standings follow (place, entrant/entry, score):
1, Mr. Proofsheet 25/14/23, 7.13
2, Bernard Levy 24/9/20, 8.38
3, BrianW 32/15/19, 11.38
4, SofLD 20.75/10/10.75, 17.63
5, crawlingbug 33/16/28, 18.13
6, Dandreaja 35/16/26, 18.13
7, mmeggs 34/16/30, 21.13
8, GH 38/15/28, 24.13
9, Valueman 35/16/33, 25.13
10, ccryder 35,15,32, 25.13
11, mtnlion 38/15/31, 27.13
12, rhkgt 37/16/35 , 29.13
13, lorlurker 38/16/34, 29.13
14, Still Crazy 88 38/16/35, 30.13
15, Mr. Adrenaline 39/17/39, 35.88
16, NorthForce 39/10/34, 36.13
17, dabenks 41/15/37, 36.13
18, MH 41/16/39, 37.13
19, brianh 40/13/40, 40.13
20, Coff drop 48/15.5/36, 41.63
21, Don Limb 44/15/40, 42.13
22, Moron_35 46/16.5/40, 43.38
23, Gremlin 43/17/43, 43.88
24, Wlong41 46/16/42, 45.13
25, Blockhead3 49.9/16.9/38.1, 45.75
26, VASCARman 48/16/42, 47.13
27, Corgini: 46/14.5/43, 47.63
28, jopowa 45/17/45, 47.88
29, Djane 49/13.5/42, 50.63
30, six sigma enigma 48/13/45, 53.13
31, Mick 51/15/44, 53.13
32, epona 00 51/16/45, 53.13
33, RocketScientist: 52/16/44, 53.13
34, Peter Hudson 48/17/48, 53.88
35, LORWORKER: 56.25/14.75/41.3, 55.94
36, Dwight Martin 50/15/48, 56.13
37, Robert. G. Brown, 52/16/48, 57.13
38, Nancy Haft 52/15.75/48, 57.38
39, SnowShoe 60/15/40, 58.13
40, KThiel: 52/14.5/49, 59.63
41, Steven Rachbach 56/15/48, 62.13
42, Jim Parkinson, 60/16/45, 62.13
43, Dragonfly 55/16.5/50, 62.38
44, Chart 2000 55/13/50, 65.13
45, Halpcar2 56/16/52, 65.13
46, Jim Fleming 56/17/52, 65.88
47, Tim A 56/15/52, 66.13
48, JeffVayda: 60/14/48, 67.13
49, Thomas 63/16.25/48.5, 68.63
50, Safety Agent Man59/16/53., 69.13
51, CrisisWhatCrisis 68/14/49, 76.13
52, ReaganDuBose 60/17/60, 77.88
53, LoralLong:66/15/55, 79.13
54, BKPSY 66/16/63, 86.13
55, AR2BW 65/17/65, 87.88
56, Tastychap 69/16.9/65, 91.81
57, ltfequities 72/ 17/65, 94.88
58, GeneralHQ 73/16.5/ 65 , 95.38
59, Chessen29 76/17 /72, 105.88
60, ChuckKieger 84/18/77, 119.88
61, loree 20 120/20/40, 120.88
62, mstudm 98/13.75/78, 135.38
63, Noel de Leon 110/16/95, 162.13
64, Tahoetech 127/17/80, 164.88
65, E Haiken 125/15/115, 198.13
66, roskie 186/16/175, 318.13
Thanks again to everyone for playing and good luck to all (especially roskie!). I'll report
back next month, or earlier if stock price movement warrants.
YO&HS
RS
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