Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (7017)	7/20/1999 9:10:00 PM
From: mister topes	Respond to of 15132

Yea, it sure looks like the market gets a bout of vertigo at 28 times earnings. Of course, Cisco waited until 76 times next year's earnings to roll over. Earth to greater fool, where art thou? Hope we're not going to have a greater fool shortage. That would really be a bummer.

To: marc ultra who wrote (7017)	7/20/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Taiwan ignoring warnings from China "China's state press reported prominently today on war games and a survey showing public support for using force against the island". nytimes.com

To: marc ultra who wrote (7017)	7/23/1999 4:48:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

I trimmed my small position in AMAT today. I don't like some seasonal factors and the way the market's acting here.I've heard the first two weeks in July are usually strong, not so great after that. Also as we know May to November has a pretty good record of being the weak half of the year with Nov thru May being relatively strong. Throw in the fact that we are around 28x earnings and facing a hostile Fed. As I thought previously that meaningless bias switch to neutral may turn out to have been a wonderful gift to investors to take profits while the going was good. The troublesome CIBCR leading inflation index discussed by Bob and on this thread probably predicted that Greenspan was not going to come out and say everything's copasthetic. We are unable to shake the 6% area on the long bond which I think makes these valuations intolerable. If we do get a big drop in rates it could be from some flight to quality secondary to some international problem like Taiwan vs China or China devaluing, not the type of development that should make the lower rates of any comfort to the market. My ultrabear moderate hedge is making money now and I see no reason to close it and get any more aggressive as I'm a bit afraid that a blue Monday situation might smack us one of these weeks. Also I'm wary of the ECI coming out next week as I'm concerned health care costs may be rising along with other compensation I'm a little too wary of playing the Ultrashort OTC game due to the way the NAZ 100 can make explosive moves. Of course a sell signal would make me more aggressive on the hedge and short side. I wonder if Bob might be looking for an unimpressive rally toward highs before pulling the plug or if he's really still sanguine about this market Marc