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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7806)	7/21/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

Mike, please don't give up on arbitrage because this one hurt you a bit. Go back to the reason we sold our NH, or at least why I did. They grossly overpaid for CSE. Conceptually, buying this arbitrage may have gone against your reason for selling NH? NH may slowly be waking up to the fact that it overpaid and be trying to renegotiate the deal, because of "worse than expected results". CSE, in my opinion, would have little alternative to taking a price cut. This is what today's action is saying, in my opinion -- a $5-10 price cut. (The drop is way too big for a delay in closing.)

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7806)	7/21/1999 7:43:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

You may regret bailing on Case, you may not. I stayed with it, figuring on probabilities of x for closure at $55 a share, y for a renegotiated price in the mid-high 40s, and z for New Holland slinking away and Case falling to $30 before you can get out. I cover airlines professionally, though I don't know Mesaba well (I don't do small cap airlines). Tell my why you would believe that , <<it's 5-year growth line appears reasonably assured.>> That sounds like no airline I've ever encountered. If I'm going to do airlines - and that's a big if - I stick to AMR, backed by the asset value of Sabre (close to $40 per AMR share), a share buyback, and the best management in the business except for Southwest (which trades at 3x the multiple of AMR with Sabre backed out). JJC