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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich Wolf who wrote (13268)	7/21/1999 9:20:00 PM
From: mooter775	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 27311

Rich, I think you are absolutely right with your analysis, and let's wait and see how it plays out. Now, once the 7/27 date occurs, and they are fixed at $ 6.03 on their initial tranche, one can accept they would have as many as four years of floating rate exposure on the 2nd tranche. But with a fixed rate of $ 6.03 (or the adjusted $ 5.85), they would be losing value on all their 1st tranche if they were somehow able to benefit from a lower conversion on the second tranche. So we can expect the following argument from the skeptics: sure, the first tranche is fixed, so "obviously" CC has converted and sold all those 1st tranche shares, so "now" they have no more interest in seeing the stock rise (despite their warrant play at $ 6.75 or so), and they want it go to lower. Well, as I've said before, I am long, comfortable, and awaiting further evidence to the skeptics that the company is moving ahead with volume li-poly production.

To: Rich Wolf who wrote (13268)	7/21/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27311

Rich, I think that CC would "hedge" their bets to maximize profits. If indeed they shorted and if they know a PO is imminent, they probably would use the current weakness for covering these shorts. If they know that a PO is not imminent, then they might even go "all the way" with the floorless. I think that a very sharp spiral occurred with, I believe, Osicom(?) under similar circumstances. This all depends on how "imminent" is that PO. I have no way of knowing if that PO is imminent or not, so I am "flat". Zeev