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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: F Robert Simms who wrote (20719)	7/21/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: Tom Tallant	Respond to of 99985

Bob, <<if the market was somewhat neutral then there was a 70% chance of a big drop the third day. Today was flat on the third day. Do you have any statistics on that?>> Today was the second day after the drop and we were for all intent and purpose flat. Regards, Tom

To: F Robert Simms who wrote (20719)	7/22/1999 8:11:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Bob, >>>> if the market was somewhat neutral then there was a 70% chance of a big drop the third day. Today was flat on the third day. Do you have any statistics on that? <<<< Firstly, the 3-DAY patterns are normally better illustrated by the DOW. I dont know exactly why but maybe because it is less volitile than the NAZ. This specific cycle is not the best example of a 3-DAY PATTERN, since the 1st day after my CLASS SELL SIGNAL was not strong. Please keep in mind that the statistics which I kept were based on the timing of my CLASS SIGNALs. The PATTERN is: 1) MUST GET a CLASS SELL/BUY signal 2) DAY 1 after CLASS SIGNAL = STRONG MOVE 3) DAY 2 after CLASS SIGNAL = FLAT 4) DAY 3 after CLASS SIGNAL = STRONG MOVE similar in size to DAY 1 It is actually a 4 DAY PATTERN which starts with my CLASS SIGNALs, and that was what my statistics was based on. The KEY to the start of the 3-DAY PATTERN is the CLASS SELL signal and then the STRONG move on consecutive days. It is common, but less accurate, when the day after the CLASS SIGNAL is flat then the 2nd day after the CLASS SELL signal is down strong, then the 3-DAY pattern actually starts on the 2nd day after the CLASS SELL signal, but keep in mind that the accuracy is less. Using the DOW the 1st day after the CLASS SELL signal was MON, but MON was flat. TUE was a strong down day so that should be the beginning of the 3-DAY pattern, not not MONDAY. So today is actually DAY 3, not DAY 4. I guess the best way to explain it is that the 3-DAY PATTERN starts on the 1st STRONG DOWN day after my CLASS SELL signal, and that the closer the 1st DOWN DAY is to the CLASS SELL SIGNAL, the more accurate it is. Hope that explains it better. As for today I cannot ignore the fact that GREENSPAN is talking today, which can skew things in either direction. seeya seeya