A MUST READ: WHAT THE REAL EXPERTS ARE PREDICTING ABOUT Y-TO-KAPUTYOU!
Anyone who disregards their statements is very, very foolish, and may be be very, very burnt toast, in very, very few months!
The following exerpts are from the "Y2K Experts Page" at:
russkelly.com
Be sure to read the lengthy "Statements page," where these quotes
come from at:
russkelly.com
Latest from Dennis Elenburg:
(July 1999) "My ranking remains unchanged due to no new news. The Y2k
debate has deteriorated into a propaganda battle for public perception,
and it appears that the bankers, corporate attorneys, and govenment spin
doctors are winning at this point."
"People have dug in with their positions and few are changing their minds.
Facts, evidence, and decades of project management history don't seem to
matter. Still, the facts are that large IT projects rarely get done on
time. Y2k is the biggest and most ubiquitous IT project in the history of
the industry. What remains to be seen is what impact unexpected and
uncorrected Y2k bugs will have on business, industry, government, and
individual lives in the coming months."
Latest from Harlan Smith:
(July 1999):
"Lots of good reports but ...
Too many loose ends not being tied up.
Too much uncertainty about oil supply and foreign supply lines in general.
Too much self reporting that successful remediation is at severe risk --
e.g. Washington DC, Ventura County.
Too much government and banking propaganda as undesirable replacement for
independent audit of progress.
Too many news blackouts for areas in trouble -- US Post Office, Department
of Veteran's Affairs.
Too many deadlines being pushed out to September through November -- US
Army
Too many superficial tests being run as propaganda ploys -- FAA, NERC
Too many real tests unsuccessful -- L. A. sewage and elevator failures.
Too many programmers unhappy about progress being made.
Too few BCCPs (Business Continuity and Contingency Preparation) plans from
federal agencies -- none?
Too late amendment to Executive Order establishing 40-person ICC
(Information Coordination Center)
Too few community action groups, too poorly focused.
Too much continuing escalation of federal remediation budget that doesn't
even comprehend contingency preparations.
Too many foreign countries half awake.
Too few met June 30 deadline.
Too little understanding of the implications of minor problems -- July 1st
start of fiscal year.
Too few signs of life from Al Gore, whose presidential campaign depends on
Y2K success.
Too tepid responses from U.N. and G8.
Too much litigation commencing -- GTE suing insurers for $300 million.
Too little news on real status of embedded systems problems.
Too much secrecy on government preparations -- News blackout on evacuation
route signs appearing on Michigan Interstates
Too much exaggeration of the problem by "doomers", minimization of the
problem by "Happy Faces" and lack of objective factual information by the
large majority."
Latest fromThierry Falissard:
(July 1999): "My ranking is unchanged (8,5). I am looking for good news,
but I don't find any. Most Fortune 500 firms are falling behind (I
recommend John F. Mauldin's article :
2000wave.com where he forecasts
now a severe recession). Most public organisms (I'm speaking of France)
are not ready, while the focus here is still on Small and Medium
Enterprises. I'm wondering whether we are stepping now, after awareness
and before panic, to a new state of mind : RESIGNATION."
Latest from Cory Hamasaki:
(July 1999) "The Y2K news has been uniformly bad, L.A.'s flubbed Y2K
tests, Washington DC shifting to a contingency mode that includes 12 hour
shifts for the police, Locomotive size generators, and a request for 75
million dollars from the Feds."
"Add to this the grilling that Senator Bennett gave OMB (So far, my
analysis in WRP 123 is the only report on this issue.) and the disclosure
by the NRC confirming monitoring and engineering systems problems at
Nuclear power plants. The picture is not very pretty."
"On the other hand, we still have six months to go."
Latest from Russ Kelly:
(July 1999) "I am not any more optimistic than I was a month ago--too much
remains to be done, and too little time to do it in. I am astounded at
the lack of public awareness at this late date, and the general apathy.
Probably no one wants Y2K to rain on their parade during this economic
boom year. After vacations and children are back in school, I suspect
there will be some serious apprehension. Many small business failures are
almost certain and this will ripple through the country. Banks are safe.
Electric power probably not a major problem but there will be lots of
temporary outages, surges, and "brown outs." These fluctuations and
reduced power "fries" sensitive components. Should be a banner sales year
for modem manufacturers, TV and VCR makers, electronic home telephones,
UPS/SPS manufacturers, other companies with sensitive electronics."
"During the first quarter of 2000 many will have problems, some will
benefit. It will be 270 million different things in US. Expect Y2K range
and aberrant behavior."
Latest from Gary North:
(July 1999): "The main July 1 non-event will be the absence of compliance
by most of those companies and governments that promised to be compliant
no later than July 1, which replaced the March 31 deadline, which replaced
the December 31 deadline. There will no doubt be numerous 98% compliant
organizations. The new deadline will be September 30. Problem: we are
running out of 'soon'."
****************************************
Below is a list of individuals that are the most widely quoted authorities
on "year 2000" issues. A short biographical background and statement
provided by the individual is shown..
Rankings are based on the extensive monitoring of the forums, web sites,
newsletters, published articles and books, and in most cases, personal
contact with the individuals by Russ Kelly. Individuals ranked themselves.
The purpose of the rankings is so that we can monitor the "seriousness"
trend. It is mostly of academic interest where we are at the moment. What
is of critical importance, is the direction we are going. Is it getting
better, or is it getting worse? Have we waited too long to get it all
done, or is the "undone" really unimportant after all? See what these
experts have to say, then visit their web sites for more information.
Ranking of problem ranges from 0 for absolutely no concern, to 10 for a
belief that the problem is so serious that major worldwide social,
economic, and technological disruptions will occur.
Is the problem getting better? Staying the same? Or getting worse? See the
trends according to the panel of experts. Rankings posted monthly. Come
back often.
The meaning of our trend symbols....
L This expert's ranking is worse since the last survey.
K This expert's ranking remains the same as their last ranking.
J This expert's ranking is improved since the last survey.
? This expert has not responded to the latest survey yet.
In alphabetical order, our experts....
<Picture>
? Dave Bettinger. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 6.5. August 1998- 7.5.
October 1998- 7.8. December 1998- 7.8. January 1999-7.8. February 1999-
7.5. March 1999- 7.4. April 1999- 7.4. May 1999- 7.4. June 1999- 7.5.
B.S.B.A.- Management. I.T. professional 16 years; Y2k practitioner 4
years. Author; frequent speaker on national circuit; co-leader of
international year 2000 working group. (www.year2000.unt.edu) [Click here
for statement from Dave]
K Joe Boivin. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 9.5. August 1998- 9.6.
October 1998- 9.7. December 1998- 9.8. January 1999- 9.9. February 1999-
9.9. March 1999- 10.0. April 1999- 10.0. May 1999- 10.0. June 1999-
10.0. July 1999- 10.0. Canadian, Year 2000 banking and management expert.
Former Director of Year 2000 program for Canada's second largest bank
(CIBC). President of the Global Millennium Foundation, a non-profit,
non-partisan, organization committed to developing national and global
level solutions to the Year 2000 technological crisis.
globalmf.org [Click here for statement from Joe]
? Dr. Douglass Carmichael. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. October
1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 5 to 8. March 1999- 6 to 8.
May 1999- 6.0. Psychotherapist and consultant in the intersection between
people and organizations, psychology, technology, economics and politics.
Author, researcher, writer. Ph.D. psychology, California Institute of
Technology-physics, Harvard University Cognitive Studies- Brunner, Mexican
Institute of Psychoanalysis - Erich Fromm, Washington School of
Psychiatry, advanced psychotherapy. tmn.com [Click here
for statement from Doug]
K Dennis Elenburg (aka "The Y2k Weatherman"). Ranking of problem: June
1998- 7.77. August 1998- 7.77. October 1998- 7.77. December 1998- 7.77.
January 1999- 7.77. February 1999- 7.1. April 1999- 7.1. May 1999- 7.1.
June 1999- 7.1. July 1999- 7.1. Dennis specifically wants you to note his
statement on the ranking by clicking on "Statement from Dennis" below. Y2k
Consultant to a major telecommunications company, editor of the free
Y2kWatch News email list that reaches 20,000 subscribers, and vocal
advocate for Y2k personal preparedness. (http://Y2kWatch.com/) [Click here
for statement from Dennis]
K Thierry Falissard. Ranking of problem: August 1998- 9.0. October 1998-
9.0. December 1998- 8.5. January 1999- 8.5. February 1999- 8.5. March
1999- 8.5. April 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 8.5. June 1999- 8.5. July 1999-
8.5. French. Software developer and Systems engineer with 17 years
experience working on mainframe systems. Author of 4 books about systems
and of many articles in French and English IT press. 2 years dedicated to
y2k issues. ourworld.compuserve.com [Click
here for statement from Thierry]
K Karl Feilder. Ranking of problem: July 1998- 5.0. August 1998: 6.0.
October 1998- 6.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 5.0. February 1999-
6.0. March 1999- 7.0. April 1999- 7.0. May 1999- 7.5. June 1999- 8.0.
July 1999- 8.0. CEO of Greenwich Mean Time, international expert on the
Y2K PC problem and its resolution. PC Program Coordinator of the UK
government's Year 2000 taskforce, Action 2000. He also has been appointed
PC Program Advisor for the Australian government's Year 2000 taskforce,
and Honorary Advisor to the South African Government.
(http://www.feilder.com) [Click here for statement from Karl]
J Dr. Mark Frautschi. Ranking of problem: January 1999- 7.0. February
1999- 7.0. March 1999- 6.2. April 1999- 5.8 to 7.8. May 1999- 6.0 to 8.0.
June 1999- 6.0 to 8.0. July 1999- 5.8 to 7.8. Physicist by training, Dr.
Frautschi was introduced to y2k in 1997 through his interest in the
interface between the social and scientific sides of organizations like
the national laboratories, where he conducted his high-energy physics
research. He is the author of several articles on Y2k and frequently gives
presentations and interviews about this rapidly evolving subject.
(http://www.tmn.com/~frautsch/) [Click here for statement from Mark]
L Dr. Paula Gordon. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 8.0. May 1999-
9.0. June 1999- 5.0 to 9.0. July 1999- 4.0 to 9.5. Visiting Research
Professor and Director of Special Projects in the Research Program in
Social and Organizational Learning, School of Business and Public
Management at George Washington University in Washington, DC. She speaks
and writes on Y2K. Her White Paper on Y2K: "A Call to Action: National
and Global Implications of the Year 2000 and Embedded Systems Crisis" is
at her website. (http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon) [Click here for
statement from Paula]
? Dr. Reynolds Griffith. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998-
7.6. October 1998- 7.6. December 1998- 7.6. January 1999- 7.6 February
1999- 7.4. March 1999- 7.2. April 1999- 7.2. May 1999- 7.2. June 1999-
7.2. Professor of Finance at Stephen F.Austin State University. Ph.D.
from the University of Texas at Austin. Holds the Chartered Financial
Analyst designation. He has been researching the Year 2000 Problem since
early 1997 and has written papers and articles related to it.
(http://cobweb.sfasu.edu/~rg/rgy2k.htm) [Click here for statement from
Reynolds]
K Cory K. Hamasaki. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 7.0. October 1998- 7.0.
December 1998- 7.0. March 1999- 7.0. May 1999- 7.0. July 1999- 7.0. BA
Chemistry, MS Computer Science - the George Washington University, 29
years in S/360-S390 systems programming and large systems. Discovered the
000197AF decade roll over problem in 1979, documented in Risks Digest.
(http://www.kiyoinc.com/HHResCo.html) [Click here for statement from Cory]
K Russ Kelly. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.3.
October 1998- 8.5. December 1998- 8.7. January 1999- 8.7. February 1999-
8.5. March 1999- 8.5. April 1999- 8.8. May 1999- 8.9. June 1999- 9.0.
July 1999- 9.0. 36 year software development pioneer, speaker on year 2000
issues, editor of "Kelly's Year 2000 Digest", and weekly radio talk show
host of "Year 2000 and You." www.russkelly.com [Click here for statement
from Russ]
K Roleigh Martin. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 5 to 9. March 1999- 5.5
to 9.0. May 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. July 1999- 5.5 to 9.0. Master of Arts in
Sociology, 21 years in Data Processing, writer and speaker on "Y2K
Embedded Systems Threat."
ourworld.compuserve.com [Click here for
statement from Roleigh]
K Michael Maynard. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 5.0. March 1999-
6.0. April 1999- 4.0. May 1999- 3.0. July 1999- 3.0. Michael Maynard is
President of Azimuth Partners, Inc, a management and technology consulting
company. He has led Y2K remediation projects for 5 years. He is columnist
at large for NewsBytes and senior editor of Intenational Business
publications. (www.azipart.com) [Click here for statement from Michael]
K Dr. Gary North. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 10.0. August 1998- 10.0.
October 1998- 10.0. December 1998- 10.0. January 1999- 10.0. April 1999-
10.0. May 1999- 10.0. June 1999- 10.0. July 1999- 10.0. Historian, Ph.D.
in history. No known information technology background. www.garynorth.com
[Click here for statement from Gary].
K Dr. Scott Olmsted. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0.
October 1998- 8.5. December 1998- 8.7. January 1999- 8.7. March 1999- 8.7.
April 1999- 8.5. May 1999- 8.0. June 1999- 8.0. July 1999- 8.0.
Doctorate in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford. 20 year software
veteran. www.prepare4y2k.com [Click here for statement from Scott]
J Charles Reuben. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 7.2.
October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 6.7. February 1999-
6.7. March 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 3.5 to 4.5. May 1999- 2.0 to 3.5. June
1999- 1.5 to 2.5. July 1999- 1.0 to 2.0. B.Sc.
(Physics,Chemistry,Biology), M.A.(Mathematics), Businessman,Dallas
..programs in 9 languages has been working with Computers for 20 years..
home.swbell.net/buytexas/y2k3link.htm [Click here for statement from
Charles]
J Alan Simpson. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 8.0.
October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 6.0. January 1999- 6.0. February 1999-
5.5. April 1999- 5.0. May 1999- 4.5. June 1999- 4.5. July 1999- 4.0.
Author. Information Technology executive. International broadcaster and
speaker. Satellite communications pioneer. www.comlinks.com [Click here
for statement from Alan]
L Harlan Smith. Ranking of Problem: June 1998- 7.5. August 1998- 8.0.
December 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.2. April 1999- 6.0. June 1999- 6.0.
July 1999- 7.0. Electronics engineer (retired) with 36 years experience of
working on complex military radar systems. Author of "Synergistic
Mitigation and Contingency Preparation"
(http://2000.jbaworld.com/people/smith_h.htm) [Click here for statement
from Harlan]
? Timothy J Wilbur. Ranking of problem: February 1999- 8.5. March 1999-
9.0. April 1999- 9.1. May 1999- 9.2. June 1999- 9.5. Dip,. Social
Scientist, Research Development and Analysis, Personal Computer Business
Management Consultant; Author, Y2K lecturer, founder the Beyond 2000
Awareness Project; Dip,. Homoeopathy, Iridology, Family Therapy.
(http://www.webit-designs.com/beyond2000) [Click here for statement from
Timothy]
? Ed Yourdon. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. February 1999- 8.5. May
1999- 7.0 to 9.0. Prolific author, 30 year programming pioneer, B.S. in
applied mathmatics from MIT. (www.yourdon.com) [Click here for statement
from Ed]
J Nicholas Zvegintzov. Ranking of problem: June 1998- 1.0. October 1998-
1.0. December 1998- 1.0. January 1999- 1.0. February 1999- 1.0. March
1999- 1.0. April 1999- 0.9. May 1999- 0.8. June 1999- 0.7. July 1999-
0.6. Author, speaker, software company president. M.A. from Oxford Univ.
in Experimental Psychology and Philosophy. Researched in computer science
and artificial intelligence at UC Berkeley and Carnegie-Mellon. 35 year
software veteran. (http://www.softwaremanagement.com) [Click here for
statement from Nicholas]
Putting it in perspective. Click here to open an Excel spreadsheet file
that gives an interesting insight to the cumulative rankings of the
experts. Thanks to the efforts and courtesy of an interested experts page
watcher that wishes to remain anonymous. We're hoping they will continue
with this analysis each month.
The purpose, and how the experts were selected
The purpose of this "experts" page is to bring leading year 2000 experts
together in one place to provide a summarized |
