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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (27236)	7/23/1999 9:15:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

200day moving av is at 75 and 50d moving average is at 85. Gives some clue of low target. i.e. 75-85. But there are occacsions pretty much every year that it has dropped below 200day moving average. If it does that I would say 72 (50 PE off of 1.42) or 65 (MSFTs high put strike) would be supports

To: t2 who wrote (27236)	7/24/1999 12:03:00 AM
From: Matteo	Respond to of 74651

Tech, I agree with MSFT going sideways for a few months or at least till the end of September. I was thinking of buying Jan 01, 100 calls at 15$ while selling september 100 calls at 2$ (covered by the leaps). I anticipate they will expire worthless and would then sell some more in October according to were the price of MSFT is at. Example, if it is hovering around 95 I would sell calls at 105 or 110. I expect to continue doing this until we get indication that MSFT is poised for its next take-off. If this goes on long enough I could get my leaps for free. Your comments are sincerely appreciated.

To: t2 who wrote (27236)	7/24/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: ericneu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

If it is true that the lowest price in the months of July and August is what the employee options are based upon (i wish someone could confirm it as fact), then it is reasonable to assume the company is using Y2K as a way to bring more uncertainty to earnings in the hope of getting a drop in the price. --- The strike price for grants used to be the lowest closing price during the month of July. That policy has changed, starting this year. From now on, the strike price will be the closing price on the last day of the month. I'll tell you, I'm not at all worried about whether the strike price is 85 or 105. I've learned that it's not terribly significant in the long run. - Eric

To: t2 who wrote (27236)	7/24/1999 12:34:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

t2k:"Another thing to remember is that MSFT sells equity put warrants on its stock. If the stock corrects enough, they could sell these for a good profit. The more it corrects, the more they get from these sales." Actually when you write naked puts you have to be prepared to buy the stock if put to you. Suppose they write puts at 75 and receive the premium they are money ahead. But if the stock goes to 75 they have to buy them back which is ok as they can buy the stock back as part of stock buy back. If it goes to 60 they lose big time as they have to buy a $60 stock for $75. So they do not want it to go too low depending on where they wrote the puts. JFD