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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rarebird who wrote (7099)7/24/1999 10:48:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9818
 
Y2K is like Pascal's Wager. If you prepare and nothing happens, you still have your life to live. If you don't prepare adequately and major disruptions do occur, you suffer the risk of losing your life

No disagreement there. But quite obviously you failed to read my post fully.

But I have found that it is just easier to motivate people into thinking and doing something about preparing if I compare Y2K to some other form of natural disaster that could strike at any time rather than the potential end of civilization.

Clearly I'm not advocating doing no preparation. And I'm about as much a "polly-anna" as you are an extremist anti-govt survialist/anarchist. Watch the insults, Rarebird. They're my opinions and I'm entitled to them without derogatory comments from you or anyone else.

There is a CLEAR DIFFERENCE between taking reasonable precautions and being mentally and physically prepared for unknown contingencies, and focusing your preparations for what you have already declared inevitable because of fear-based analysis. Fear inevitably creates the worst case, and irrational, scenario in our minds. It takes rational thought to say... "hey even if there are disruptions, they will only be temporary, because there exists one hell of an incentive to fix the problem".

You don't know what will happen and neither do I. So I prepare a contingency plan based upon my circumstances and needs. You do the same. But clearly our needs are not the same, nor are our circumstances.

And all of us should encourage everyone we know, or discuss this with, to take do the same, take preparations that they feel comfortable with. Because, if they aren't comfortable, they just won't do it.

If you call them a fool for not doing as much as you're doing, then they'll call you a wacko and become that much more steadfast in their denial and the battle is lost and you've wasted your time and effort and done more damage than good.

And just as you claim to find my views dangerous, I find the views of those who advocate taking all their money out of the bank, selling all of their stocks, buying gold and silver, selling the house and moving to a farm...etc, etc, as just a bit dangerous as well. Too many people taking such drastic steps all at once is obviously far more damaging than the friggin' computer problem itself.

But I guess that's where we disagree, rarebird. So don't provoke me by calling my ideas "dangerous or polly-annaish" and I won't provoke you by calling you an extremist economic subversive.... <VBG>

Alright??

Regards,

Ron



To: Rarebird who wrote (7099)7/24/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: bearcub  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9818
 
rarebird, the reason why the pollyannas are so woefully unprepared is due to their misunderstanding of the psychology of fear; they've miscalculated the primary attribute of fear. fear paralyzes, it does not "cause" panic. that paralyzation is primarily observable in non-logical utterances such as permeate y2k threads, except for the effective counterpoint expressed on this thread by yourself and others with experiential wisdom.

someone used the allegory of frozen deer in the headlights earlier this week. this metaphor is totally lost one those who have never observed this frozen by fear manifestation resulting in many animal carcasses strewn across the roadsides of this world since the invention of the automobile.

until fear's cycle, is conquered by movement, which in y2k, means extensive preparation activity, can there be any counterbalancing surge of hope.

our government more than any other is predicating all types of actions, laws, executive orders, contingency plans, and operational military exercises by employing fear as a delaying tactic in sharing redemtive information, simply because fear is such a useful opiate...for the time being.

if this were NOT true, there would be more governmental openness and education as you have stated before.

instead what we have is the government promoting fear by design, by spin, by ommission, by anything but the cold, unvarnished truth, that it is every man, woman, and child for themselves, in just 160 days, and take cover!!! how does goverment do this: in propigating paralyzing stasis on a scale never before undertaken by any administration prior to clinton. said paralysis allows time to strip the most options by law, executive order, presidential decision directive or just plain bully pulpiteering as perot once called it.

when action IS called for, our democratic residents will rebell at the outlawing of such a multitude of options, by stealth, and THAT realization will mobilze, breaking the paralyzing stasis.

to carry the deer frozen in the headlight allegory a step further,
the blinding light of public ridicule and harrassment and dangerous fringe element brought to bear upon the prepared and continually preparing is the last heavy 'light' to be used to perpetuate the statis until...until it simply doesn't work anymore, and someone or something, or some action breaks the concentration of the endangered animal targets, and they can escape.

this escape sequence by the majority scrambling for remaining resources, will be an awesome sight to watch from safety! an awesome sight indeed!!!

people who have looked fear in the eye, and taken overt, long term action, without big brother's guidance and permission if you please, such as the scott olmsteads among us, are labeled as fear mongers, whackos and alarmists, instead of the fear conquering, courageous heroes that they are.

i suspect, rarebird, that the closer the immoveable deadlines become, the more the rhetoric will escalate by the lipservice to preparation crowd, especially but not exclusive to infecting this thread. in all my 70+ years of existance, i've never seen such effort expended upon trying to eliminate the minority, trying to bring us, into the majority fold of paralyzed stasis.

this is sad, very VERY sad.

i further predict there will be more antagonistic hyperbole directed to those of us who have dug our family foxholes and made them as immune to disaster as we know how.

fortunately for me and my family, the non-discriminatory fires like ken speaks of, as well as the executions via the martial law excuse under emergency powers acts heretofore uncoiled against our population, will protect us from 'them'in a wierd sort of backlash.

it is just logical, and in a strange sort of way, nature's way of cleansing the earth and reassigning/re-aligning the animal species by the oldest adaptation known to man: survival of the fittest. it will matter not, at a soon point in the future whether the non-courageous were ever among us. their charred remains will become fertilzer for a new civilization and our gardens much as a fishhead was utilized in the first pilgrim gardens by one of the oldest, adaptable, courageous surviving cultures on our shores.

i worry not about who will survive with me, you, ken, olmstead, north, yourdon, yardeni, and other visionaries. neither should you, rarebird.
just keep stay alert for any paralyzing stasis setting in. then do something about it while your choices are more numerous instead of more and more restrictive.

the short-sided unprepareds will wither as the desert grass in the heat of noonday Someone Timeless uttered centuries ago.




To: Rarebird who wrote (7099)7/24/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Ken  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9818
 
All new y2kers: Extremely good summary (post #1099), worth heeding!
< It takes courage and strength of character to prepare for Y2K and admit to the possibility that major disruptions will occur.
I find your view to have possible dangerous and deadly implications, especially if someone heeds your advice here.
Y2K is like Pascal's Wager. If you prepare and nothing happens, you still have your life to live. If you don't prepare adequately and major disruptions do occur, you suffer the risk of losing your life.
It pays to view the situation here, if I may give an analogy, as a glass which is half empty, not half full>.

I nor anyone else could not have said it better or more concisely than Rarebird did.