To: Valueman who wrote (144 ) 7/25/1999 11:15:00 AM From: JMD Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13582
Valueman--I gave myself a few days to ponder the H&Q report, and ultimately concluded that there's more wrong than right. First, I really don't think they 'get it': wireless communication, voice and or data, is a market with so many growth sectors that the only thing worth talking about is how best to participate in it. The market itself is beyond serious question. As your post indicates, the next chapter, data, is a revenue gusher for Q. H&Q seems oblivious. The main leg under their argument seemed to be declining ASP, in concert with losing market share to NOK, et. al. This is very curious. Intel has been managing in a constant environment of declining ASPs for their entire product line for 20 some odd years now and seem none the worse for wear. It is a fact of technological life. [My trusty VCR broke the other day and I waltzed in to Circuit City grimmacing at the thought of having to shell out ~$500. Jeez, it was very difficult to spend $175 and I only got there by buying a very fancy machine:CC had $99 models by the shelf load] The one area of the H&Q report that leaves me queasy is market share: our buddies at INTC certainly have that in spades. My guess is that the one billion from the secondary goes into ASICs--production, R&D, marketing, JV's, soup to nuts. "Qualcomm Inside" was suggested on the old thread, and I still think it has merit. Particularly after reading engineer's posts: this is a very high barrier to entry market and Q is in the 6th generation. I'm still in the "jury is out" stage on handset production/sales, but I know that side is providing lion's share of revenue, profits, and cash flow--enough said. Longer term however, I get very comfy with the notion of NOK, Ericcy, MOT bashing their respective brains out hustling handsets, each and every one of which has a Q ASIC nestled inside. Regards, Mike Doyle