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To: Ian@SI who wrote (1548)7/25/1999 10:31:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
From a semiconductor business news story published Friday,

...
Many of the equipment suppliers ended up abandoning their expensive strategies to create 300-mm only tool platforms and, instead, they are hedging their bets with so-called "bridge tools." Nearly all new production tools hitting the market today are on bridge platforms, estimates analyst G. Dan Hutcheson, president of VLSI Research Inc. in San Jose. "You don't have much choice but to buy a bridge tool if you want the latest technology," he points out.

But bridge tools exacerbate another problem. They make the job of determining the critical cost differences between 200-mm and 300-mm systems even more difficult. "In many cases there is no difference," Hutcheson insists. Many suppliers now admit that it doesn't make any difference whether 300-mm tools are on bridge platforms or dedicated 300-mm systems. They still will cost more than Sematech's target of 1.3 times that of existing 200-mm equipment. Some vendors put the cost premium even higher - between 1.5 to 1.8 times that of 200-mm systems.

...

300mm may happen faster than I suspect. If the fab manager is paying up for the 300mm capable tools but not getting the productivity boost, why not just accelerate the plans for the conversion?

At this time most industry pundits are being rather cautious about the rate of the switch. If anything, migrations seem to be happening much more quickly than was the case, not much more slowly.

IMO,
Ian.



To: Ian@SI who wrote (1548)7/25/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
Ian,

Re: As I commented yesterday, I've never heard of a billionaire journalist. I'm certainly not going to start taking investment advice from one of these under achievers. :-)


I'm writing this one down.

As for 300mm, I tend to believe that even with the recent project announcements we witnessed, people are still wary with regard to this sector after all it has been through during the recent downturn, kind of like the Japanese soldiers who remained in their bunkers after WWII since they did not believe the war was over.

Maybe we should send coffee and bagels to the Information Network guys in their bunker. They're gonna be getting hungry soon:-)))

BK
BTW, I certainly hope these guys are wrong....I am betting my extended vacation on it with my recent purchase of PRIA<GGG>



To: Ian@SI who wrote (1548)7/25/1999 11:38:00 AM
From: Bill Hermesmann  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 3661
 
Ian,
I think everyone on this thread and others appreciates your analysis and thorough dissections of matters semiconductor. I'm not sure you are always right, but you certainly are always reassuring. :-)