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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JGoren who wrote (37153)	7/25/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: 007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

JGoren, See my post to Labrador. If you think that my "guess" is wild unrealistic I believe we need to know what "several months" means. Perhaps I would have been better to say a few years but to clarify my "guess" I am defining several months to be in the neighborhood of 48 months. I agree with you in regards to "wildly unrealistic" if you were thinking several months were end of this year or next year. Have a good day. M. Solum

To: JGoren who wrote (37153)	7/25/1999 1:17:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 152472

the stock price will be dependent on performance of sales and earnings. I agree J. If you take the 75 figure from the last quarter, project it forward at a quarterly 35% growth factor, compounded,you get forward earnings for the next twelve months of 4.23. Divide that into the present price, and you get a present forward PE of about 36.6. If you take that earnings out one more year, at 35% a quarter, that means that , as of July 22, 2000, the projected forward earnings for the 12 months from there would be 11.93. Multiply by the same 36.6 forward PE and you get a stock price then of 436.63, a 282% increase, and a Market cap of 67.89 Billion. Project that 282% increase one more year, and you get a stock price of 1231, and a Market cap of 191.45 Billion. Frightening, isn't it? That's a "8-bagger" from here in two years. Unrealistic? Maybe. But a "Gorilla" in hyper growth stage can do it!

To: JGoren who wrote (37153)	7/25/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: puzzlecraft	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Qualcomm's fully diluted Market Cap is $30.13 billion, not $25 billion. Qualcomm's hyper diluted market cap is $35 billion (see below for my derivation). There was a substantial increase in the number of fully diluted shares reported for the latest quarter. This is a result of many QCOM employee stock options going into the money between the end of the previous quarter and the end of the latest quarter. The latest quarter showed 187,883,000 fully diluted shares. This was the figure used for coming up with the 86 cents a share earnings. Add to that the 6,900,000 recently offered, this gives a total of 194,783,000. Latest price $154 11/16. - - - - - According to the prospectus associated with the 6,900,000 sharing, QCOM will have (now has) 159,720,865 shares outstanding including the 6,900,000. Subtracting 159,721,000 from my new fully diluted figure of 194,783,000 shares means the in-the-money option dilution accounts for 35,062,000 shares. The prospectus also states that 46,193,231 shares are not included "pursuant to QUALCOMM's employee benefit plans". Assuming this is a superset of the 35,062,000 shares already included in the fully diluted shares figure, there is still an overhang of 11,131,000 shares that will be included in future fully diluted figures should the share price increase to some unspecified level. So a 206,096,000 share figure is a future fully diluted figure and needs to be considered with figuring hypothetical share prices for a hypothetical future market cap. But wait, there's more! There are 18,727,706 shares represented by "certain convertible preferred securities of QUALCOMM Financial Trust I, a Delaware statutory business trust." I recall someone saying that these would be converted sometime in 2000. So a 224,824,000 share figure is the real hyper diluted figure that should be used to figure things in the further future. So my hyper diluted QCOM market cap figure is $35 billion. John