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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Wells who wrote (69491)	7/25/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Eric, I agree Walmart is better off than say, CD-Now in competing against Amazon logistically. However a centralized e-tail model is a little different than what Walmart currently has and if you really think about it you are looking at Amazon vs. Barnes and Noble phase II here, or Dell vs. Compaq. Its not really fair to make those comparisons I know because Walmart is twice the company Compaq ever was, and Walmart has expertise (buying arrangements) with vendors that Amazon has no foothold in.. and that counts for a lot. However on Amazon's side is the centralized distribution model and Walmart is not doing that, they are a regional wh setup (a very efficient one) but its regional nonetheless, and no matter what they do matching amzn in price is going to be tough with a regional structure.... and then theres that nasty cannibalization of store sales issue that in the end gets everybody that tries to do etail and brick and mortar. If you look at toys for example Walmart will sell for the same as the in-store price (they have to do that). The advantage is they can ship it to you cheaper regionally, and the returns are more efficient for you and Walmart. Amazon will be able to sell the item cheaper by a few % I believe, but then theres the shipping expense and returns. I already posted to you I believe that shipping as a business is changing so its a big unknown here. Current shipping is way too much and if things were identical today Walmart would probably come out ahead price-wise over amazon based on shipping expense alone but I think that will change. If we just had walmarts site to look at I think we all would have a gut feel as to who will win this race (not that everybody would agree), but until then its all speculation, I wish they'd hurry up...

To: Eric Wells who wrote (69491)	7/25/1999 8:13:00 PM
From: Marshall001	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Once again, I feel compelled to post. I closed my short position on friday around 105. A quick 10 spot in a little over 24 hours. It is my feeling that the "dead cat bounce" experienced in the afternoon was shorts covering for the weekend. We will probably see a little interest in AMZN with Drugstore.com coming public this week. If AMZN makes a run with DSCM I will again go short. We all know how new IPO's perform after the first day pop. Especially online retail IPO's. I expect a short term correction in all sectors for the next 3 months. I will again be long in late october/early november. This is a short term traders outlook. Longer term should be relatively flat. Most long term holders and long term money will wait for AMZN to begin showing some progress in generating some kind of earnings. Growing revenues is fine but if it it is at the cost of greater losses then it doesn't make any sense. I still feel the overall population is hesitant to buy big ticket items strait over the internet. Sure you can find the car you want and so-on but I want to see and feel it before I commit to the purchase. I think the same will be true for high-end electronics and jewelery as well. Looking for it is one thing, committing to buy is another. The meat and potatoes of AMZN is books and music. They currently work on negative margins for this. And The auction revenues will never be huge. EBAY has proven that. Where do the profits come from? I see the potential of AMZN but I feel the markets have already priced in 5 to 7 years of flawless execution of their current business plan. That being said, AMZN is a great traders stock. The wild fluctuations can make $$ in both directions. The first thing I learned was not to get emotional about the company. I see a lot of emotion here on both sides. Why? We all know its rediculously overvalued. And we all know it could run to 200 again. If you are holding long term and defending your position by posting here you are wasting time. If you are truly long, why even bother. Go play golf or spend time with your family. Watching everyday is going to give you a heart attack. Hopefully everyone here is smart enough to see through the "gloom and doom" of shorts and the "rose colored glasses" used by the longs. Just think about it a little. M