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Non-Tech : Ashton Technology (ASTN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Keith A Walker who wrote (2175)7/25/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: Keith A Walker  Respond to of 4443
 
Thinking a little more about ASTN short position:

Let's say there was an average selling price of $15 for almost
all of the shares that have been shorted. And let's say, the average cover price has been around $10. So to date, the shorts in aggregate have made approximately $5 million. Not to shabby. On the other hand, if the stock goes to $17.50, just under its old high, when trading begins in August. Shorts are now underwater for $2.5 million.

I wonder what their threshold of pain may be? Now, let's have
another DELLusional scenario: Ashton gets some coverage from a
real investment house; say, Gruntal, and this adds further
legitimacy to the stock, fund managers at Gruntal and other small-
cap fund managers take notice and begin accumulating. Won't be long until the shorts are worried, if not trying to cover.

VWAP goes live and by November 30th, 10 million shares/day are traded
on the new system. (Oh yeah, forgot, Gomez Advisors announces their IPO for January and the Hong Kong exchange begins to get interested in using ATG for real) The overall US market has corrected 23.5% and ASTN is now at $25/share. Shorts are wondering: whatever happened to that nice $5 million profit they had in July.

It sure is fun to be DELLusional. Maybe I should start doing drugs. This scenario might get even better.

Happy trading everyone!



To: Keith A Walker who wrote (2175)7/25/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4443
 
A: Enough to take the stock up 1/2 point when I boxed on a down Wall Street/down Nasdaq day. Confidentiality requires that I not say more.

Q:"Tell us all on this thread: How many of those +1 million shares that are shorted are yours?"

BTW, it is an urban myth that a short must sometime cover. A company like ASTN that mints shares and burns cash like Pompei got buried in ashes is a situation where I may never have to cover (presuming that I unbox again, which is a fair guess, I know the stock and the story, no reason to let it slip away). I have many shorts that I've never covered that I will not have to pay taxes on for years; CLCX, FP et al.



To: Keith A Walker who wrote (2175)7/26/1999 10:50:00 AM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4443
 
Nice try on the ego play. Got the cajones to show the PM that you sent around showing your fellow chatsters how you thought you were going to set me up? Did not think so. Like I said before, I can see 200,000 ants coming down the road.

"Dear Mr. Goldfinger: You do make some sense. Perhaps this is why I respect your posts,
although, as you know, I am not short ASTN at all at this point in time. Still long and happily
delusional about it.

The article you included in your post actually reaffirms my belief that Ashton will survive and
THRIVE! As far as I am concerned, the more ECNs, the merrier. Why? It will mean that
ASTN will have to:

1) compete day-in and day-out, which, in the long-run is very good;

2) validates the whole new world of ECNs, ATSs and VWAP systems within a
secure/encrypted TCP/IP environment;

3) other players see big profits to be made, hence, others are willing to put capital on the
line, this will send investment houses, who are behind in their systems, to ATG for
advice/technology/partnerships;

4) NYSE/PHLX merger is a possibility

Am I deluded in speculating about #4, as your friend Dr. Suess believes? Perhaps, but I
could let ASTN go to $0 and not worry since I have already paid for my position. Other
longs may not have this luxury, but, the reasons I went long in the first place are still
extremely valid and John Westergaard, who pointed me to the stock in the first place, may
be eccentric, but he is NO fool! He saw all of this coming several years ago.

I am VERY impressed with you and your short friends being able to crank up the short
interest in ASTN. Really, I am sincere when I make this comment. Tell us all on this thread:
How many of those +1 million shares that are shorted are yours?

Bottom line: a short position of this magnitude will have to be covered at some point in the
future. It can be done very slowly, with little to no impact on the price, or done quickly
which is otherwise known as a short-squeeze. A stock like ASTN is vulnerable to heavy
shorting activity, however, there are limits to how many shares can be shorted (unless some
illegal manipulations are being used, as in the case of ACRT)

Shorts are typically not going to put the proceeds of their short sales into CDs - at least, I
have never done that, and I doubt the proceeds that resulted from the short sales of ASTN
have gone into US treasuries. That means that wherever that money was invested on the
long-side, that investment needs to do pretty damn well in order that the shorts can stay
ahead of margin interest expense, and margin calls in the event of a market downturn.

Some longs may buckle at ASTN's volatility. To them, I say, why did you buy ASTN in the
first place? Enjoy the volatility and ride it out. Build a core position over time, and establish
some shares as a trading position to pay for your core position. This strategy can work (it
has for me)

To Auric, I say thank you. You keep me reminded of why short interest is important and
how longs can benefit from your willingness to take the risk."