STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
July 27, 1999
U.S. Attempts to Contain and Segment African Conflicts
Summary:
The United States is reportedly stepping up military relations
with Angola and Botswana. This, combined with an apparent U.S.
initiative to repair relations with Sudan, as well as a series of
less substantial developments across Africa, suggests not only a
greater U.S. commitment to Africa, but a coherent strategy as
well. It appears that the U.S. has set about first containing,
then segmenting the spreading and interwoven web of African
conflicts -- a noble, but extremely risky, endeavor.
Analysis:
The Angolan newspaper Angolense reported in its July 17-24
edition that the United States has agreed to resume military
cooperation with Angola, which was suspended following Angola's
involvement in attempts to topple the government of Pascal
Lissouba in Congo. According to the newspaper, representatives
of the two governments reached agreements under which the U.S.
would provide airspace control equipment to Angola, approve the
training of Angolan troops by a private U.S. contractor, and help
draft an overall political, military, and social development plan
for Angola. In what we believe is related news, South Africa's
SAPA news agency reported that the U.S. would take part in
military exercises involving the Botswanan and South African
armed forces in late July and early August.
On one level, if true, the Angola report is interesting as it
implies the U.S. is now willing to actively support the MPLA
government in Luanda, abandoning the UNITA rebels it supported in
the Cold War. Luanda still receives aid from Russia, Cuba, and
Libya, making it all the more an unlikely partner for the United
States. However, engagement with the Angolan government is a
necessary component of what appears to be a developing U.S.
strategy in Africa -- contain and segment.
Africa's wars have blurred together into a nearly continental
conflict. Initially, there was the Sudan People's Liberation
Army (SPLA), backed by the United States, launching attacks on
the Islamic government in Khartoum from bases in Eritrea,
Ethiopia, and Uganda, with political offices in Egypt. In
return, Sudan backed Ugandan guerrilla armies. Sudan also
supported Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden, whose terrorist
network has been blamed for the bombings of U.S. embassies in
Kenya and Tanzania. The battle against the Sudanese government
was overshadowed by Ethiopia's attack on Eritrea, and the ensuing
war that has spread via proxy through Somalia. Kenya recently
became more involved in that conflict, assisting Ethiopia against
Eritrean-backed rebels in Somalia.
There was also the civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC), formerly Zaire until rebel forces under Laurent Kabila
overthrew Mobutu Sese Seko. Kabila's allies quickly turned
enemy, and his regime was challenged by Ugandan and Rwandan
backed Tutsi rebels. From there the battle only spread.
Angola's UNITA rebels, which had long maintained bases and
transport operations in Zaire, sided with the Tutsi rebels
against Kabila, while Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe supported
Kabila. Angola's involvement in the DRC and Congo was primarily
counter-UNITA, a pattern followed by Sudan when it provided
support to Kabila as a means of outflanking Uganda.
Angola has accused Zambia of backing UNITA, and South Africa is
maintaining a semi-hidden hand in all the conflicts. Russian and
Ukrainian mercenary pilots are peppered about the continent, and
the armories of China and the old East Bloc are supplying the
region by the boatload -- reportedly paid for by Middle Eastern
interests. Libya, too, joined in the fun, sending Chadian troops
to support Kabila, as well as attempting to mediate both the
Sudanese and Ethiopian-Eritrean conflicts and reportedly backing
Somali warlord Hussein Mohamed Aideed.
So now Africa has a web of war stretching from Mogadishu, through
Khartoum and Kinshasa, to Luanda, with filaments reaching out to
Tripoli, Harare, and beyond. Only the relatively uncontested
military of Nigeria has served as a bulwark between the central
and western African conflicts, and Nigeria is now facing its own
growing internal ethnic conflict. None of the conflicts are
soluble, since all are meshed.
It is in this context that the motives behind U.S. moves in
Angola and Botswana become clear. The U.S. appears to be
pursuing a policy of contain and segment in Africa. Containment
begins in Angola, Botswana, and no doubt Namibia. Africa's
continental conflict can not be allowed to spread further south.
In the north, Kenya is making sure the Ethiopian-Eritrean
conflict does not turn another corner, while negotiations
continue to settle that dispute. In Sudan, the U.S. is taking a
more positive approach to Khartoum, while Khartoum appears ready
to reach a compromise with the rebels. And the U.S. has
suggested the possibility of contributing troops to the
peacekeeping effort in the DRC, should a stable peace treaty be
signed. Britain, meanwhile, is improving relations with Libya,
while relations between the U.S. and Egypt -- soured during the
Netanyahu government in Israel -- are again improving.
If Nigeria doesn't go to pieces, the U.S. may have succeeded in
containing the web of conflict in the south, northwest, and
northeast -- the Sahara makes a great container to the north.
Its hope is to segment off at least the Sudanese and Ethiopian-
Eritrean conflicts from the wider conflict, allowing each to be,
if not resolved, at least contained individually. It's a great
idea, if it works. But webs have an incredible and unexpected
redundancy, and a timid web-cutter can quickly find himself
trapped.
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