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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradegod who wrote (70199)	7/28/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Tradegod.... I am actually hedging right now with some priceline puts, because I've been wrong plenty of time with st predictions. The scary thing is that toys and electronics are now news, not rumor and so is a two for one split and we're dropping. Now the hopefuls are banking on some value from DSCM to pop it. If I were a betting man, I would load up the puts after tomorrow's rally (if it occurs) peters out. I'm not betting on either of those things. I don't think splits do anything anymore unless it is truly a small outstanding shares situation like gnet where the low liquidity causes huge spreads etc. (amzn not in that camp... actually I can't think of anybody else who is). I don't know about dscm, I have noticed cmgi isn't doing anything when their IPOs go anymore so I am not counting on that either. I am less thrilled with drugstore now that I know about the problems with prescription drugs and the HMO plans. I don't like it, to me it sounds like an antitrust thing but its not an easy fix either way... still a very high quality offering but I'm a little less thrilled. The one thing I am counting on that will propel amazon stock is a blowout Xmas based on what I believe is a premier offering of toys and electronics vs the retail experience. I don't see any reason to go to toys r us and I'll bet a lot of other people don't either... thats my entire rationale for amazon here. I also think toys and electronics have merchandising issues that mean the margins have a little more elasticity than people think. Its all in the goods they stock and how they are presented. Barbie Dolls might be tiny margin but the accessories are not, etc. I know thats a retail trick and I think amzn will pull it off and come up with decent margins in those 2 depts that they can't do with books/cds.