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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (7225)	7/28/1999 1:51:00 AM
From: lifeisgood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc, Nice post. I would add that there's waaayyyyy too much bullishness, given present conditions and, as Bob repeatedly points out, waaayyyy too much complacency. This will change drastically and dramatically at some point (my guess sooner rather than later). best... LIG

To: marc ultra who wrote (7225)	7/28/1999 9:13:00 AM
From: TMAC	Respond to of 15132

I would not be shocked that once the July data is in Bob's model may not be positive. I wonder what the August newsletter will bring, by the time it's written there may be the info needed to make a major market decision. Bob's appearance in Chicago could be quite interesting on August 7th with the Market Timer due out the 6th. Wonder if those in the crowd will be privy to his full insights on the market.

To: marc ultra who wrote (7225)	7/28/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Early Greenshades Watch: Again Says U.S. Economy May Be Expanding Too Fast- bloomberg.com

To: marc ultra who wrote (7225)	7/28/1999 2:59:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Don't know if we'll finish up or down today but we clearly have another day of lackluster action with poor breadth, mediocre volume and expanding new lows. If the major averages can rally to the area of the July 16th highs with this continued poor internals a final top may be in view. I hope the NAZ also makes progress near its highs so I'll feel more comfortable putting a short hedge on that along with the S&P when the moment may be deemed appropriate Marc

To: marc ultra who wrote (7225)	7/28/1999 10:24:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

marc wrote: "We have rising rates and relatively tight money, economic growth that is too fast particularly with the limited labor force and sentiment that while maybe not at extremes suggests complacency at these valuations. " Greenspan said that our current state of high productivity stems from two sources: technological innovation and management streamlining. Both have reduced the cost of labour. So, the labour market is extremely tight. Wages have been going up--I heard a radio news item that said some fast food outlets have closed due to inability to find workers and others have paid signing bonuses. But, so far the increase cost of labour has been offset by increases in productivity: if a worker gets a 4c raise but his/her productivity increases at 4c or more, then there will be no inflation from the labour market. That has been the story so far in this business cycle. The problem will occur when the cost of labour raises faster than the raise in productivity. So, I am not familiar with the actual numbers. What are the recent rates of increase in a) hourly wage and b) productivity? Ciao, David Todtman