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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foobert who wrote (7371)	7/28/1999 3:48:00 PM
From: Ken	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9818

<failure of a large number of systems to make the SYSTEM fail> Ok, can you quantify 'large number'? How redundant is sufficient under the circumstances? You are correct about 'interconnectedness-number of systems. You probably know about GM problem- nearly 100,000 suppliers, all JIT, any number of which one part unavailable can shut the entire manufacturing line. GM reported unable to get a major % of them to respond to their surveys re: wip. How many hundreds of thousands of suppliers do those suppliers depend on? No one knows. GM said after a lot of research, that tracking that down an additional level/s was impossible. Think of the domino effects up and down that entire chain, if one key part is unavailable for a long enough period, and where no other sub supplier is available or practical. Key is not just "how many", BUT WHAT IS THE FAULT TOLERANCE ABILITY? It has never been tested- no one knows. In about 6 months we will all know, for better or worse or worst-case. For the sake of our civilization, it better be at least 5%, maybe even 10%!!! God help us ALL (because no one else will be able to) if 20% (or even less) !!!!