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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bux who wrote (388)	7/29/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Bux, Unfortunately my posts arent always clear so I'll try and outline my thinking a little better....I was trying to make the point that the Q could still see some huge growth going forward (above Ramsey's speculation of 30-50%). In order to keep growing at rate somewhere around 100% over the next couple of years, the Q will need to be able to sell ASIC's and handsets to the current GSM customers. The Q has already announced plans for the MSM5000, a CDMA2000 chipset, to begin sampling sometime in the next nine months. They havent done the same for W-CDMA. If NTT Docomo (Japan) and Europe succeed in implementing W-CDMA by 2001, the Q may be relegated to collecting tolls on these sales... unless they are working on a W-CDMA chipset right now. While CDMA (in general) may be difficult, it is not magic. Given enough time, money, and intelligent people the Q's competitors will be able to begin producing competitive CDMA chipsets. I think that they should attempt to capitalise on their advantage while it is greatest....which is right now. The other hope is that the timetable for W-CDMA slips (which is what i referred to in my post). IMO, this would force NTT-Docomo to end up implementing CDMA2000. I think that the rest of Asia (Singapore, Hong Kong etc...) might end up going with CDMA2000 too. In this case, CDMA2000 would end up becoming the dominant portion of the 3G standard and Qualcomm could get away with simply supplying CDMA2000 chips and handsets. This is a market that I think they will dominate. Hence the estimated 25-30m ASIC sales a quarter. Eventually the distinction between the two modes would go away as multi-mode handsets were introduced but I dont think this would happen for at least a couple of years. I guess I am looking for scenarios in which the Q isnt just competitive but dominant. Now that i reread my post I realise that I probably babble almost as much as Maurice....unfortunately I am no where near as entertaining. (Maybe a little sherry would help while surfing SI). Slacker