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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (25980)	7/30/1999 7:45:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

revenue calculation... total dram market for 2001 according to dq a few months ago is $60 billion...i recall that has since been lowered to $43 billion.(could go back up since prices are now rising again) toshiba estimates rmbs at 50% of total market by 2001. in the conference call rambus projected 20% of market switches quickly rising to same 50% figure "in two years." $43 billion x 50% x 1.7% ./. 25 million shares = $14.62 per share revenues in 2001. remember rmbs is already profitable at a small fraction of these revenues. these dram numbers are expected to nearly double in 2002. and i expect rmbs market share to be increasing from the 50%. conclusion 2001 will be huge 2002 will be humongous... please check my math. unclewest i am using the lowest % royalty figure i have heard. i have used it across the board. i have not allowed for the up to 5% royalties on logic chips. according to rmbs cfo, controller royalties are at least twice as high. therefore i think i am being quite conservative. there could easily be significant upside to these numbers. to be conservative again, i am assuming all warrants are exercised bringing the share total to around 25 million. here is the toshiba forecast from may 1999... >>These advanced memory ICs are intended for use in high-performance computers using the Rambus main memory system, which provides peak data transfer rates of 1.6 gigabytes/second, or two to three times as fast as today's widely used 100 megahertz (MHz) Synchronous DRAM. Toshiba forecasts that by the year 2001, the RDRAM segment will grow to approximately a 50 percent share of the main memory market.<<